**Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, including Iranian attacks on tankers and a U.S.-enforced blockade since late February 2026, continue to suppress commercial traffic well below pre-crisis norms of roughly 75–85 daily transits.** Recent data show AIS-visible crossings averaging about 8.4 per day over the past week, with daily figures fluctuating between 6 and 12 amid heightened risks, while satellite and dark-ship estimates suggest modestly higher totals; October tanker strikes have driven visible volumes to multi-month lows and elevated war-risk premiums. Trader consensus around the 30–34 range, with probabilities spread across lower buckets, reflects uncertainty over counting methodologies, the share of AIS-disabled vessels, and potential near-term shifts from naval coordination or conflict developments that could alter flows before week-end resolution.