Recent developments show that the June 2026 US-Iran MOU reopened the Strait of Hormuz on a temporary 60-day basis with a naval blockade lift and ceasefire terms, yet final negotiations for a permanent Hormuz Agreement have stalled amid reported violations, IRGC actions, and revoked sanctions waivers. With midterms set for November 3, traders assign an 83.2% probability to no agreement materializing beforehand, reflecting extended timelines, domestic political pressures on both sides, and uncertainty over nuclear and maritime governance issues. If a deal advances, the narrow edge for Democratic Senate control at 9.9% versus 7.8% for Republicans stems from how resolution of the conflict could shift turnout and messaging in competitive races.