Persistent geopolitical tensions from the US-Iran conflict that began in February 2026 continue to suppress commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, with recent seven-day averages near 4.6 transits per day—roughly 5% of the pre-crisis baseline of about 85 ships daily—driven by elevated war-risk insurance premiums, naval blockades, and repeated vessel strikes. Market-implied odds clustered near 50% across bins reflect trader uncertainty over whether ongoing diplomatic efforts or military protections will sustain modest rebounds seen in September or allow further escalation that keeps flows at minimal levels. Key swing factors include any ceasefire progress, shifts in US enforcement, or additional attacks that could alter risk appetite and redirect tankers toward alternatives like ship-to-ship transfers.