Persistent security risks from ongoing US-Iran tensions, including recent tanker strikes and elevated war-risk premiums, continue to constrain visible AIS transits through the Strait of Hormuz to single-digit daily averages as of early October 2026, far below the pre-crisis baseline of roughly 70-85 vessels. Market-implied odds remain tightly clustered across mid-range bins because traders weigh competing signals: US-facilitated dark transits and Gulf of Oman ship-to-ship transfers have supported oil flows near 7-13 million barrels per day in recent weeks, yet persistent attacks, insurance costs, and selective Iranian permitting create high uncertainty around total commercial vessel counts for the week of October 5. Key near-term catalysts include any escalation in incidents or shifts in diplomatic talks that could alter escorted routing volumes.