Ongoing IRGC strikes and US enforcement actions have kept Strait of Hormuz transits at roughly 5% of pre-crisis levels as of early October 2026, with AIS-visible commercial traffic averaging just 4–5 vessels daily versus 85 before the February 2026 escalation. This sustained disruption has driven VLCC freight from the Middle East Gulf to China above $24 per barrel and pushed war-risk insurance premiums sharply higher, while prompting widespread dark transits, ship-to-ship transfers, and naval convoys. Recent September incidents, including projectile strikes on tankers such as El Gaia and a Kuwaiti VLCC, continue to shape trader views on daily targeting probabilities. Elevated tanker rates now represent 11–25% of delivered crude value, underscoring how kinetic events directly influence energy logistics costs and global supply reliability ahead of any potential diplomatic de-escalation.