Recent U.S. statements and diplomatic steps have anchored trader expectations that the ceasefire will hold through the November 3 midterms. On October 8, President Trump publicly committed not to launch attacks on Iran before the elections, following a series of 60-day extensions and a memorandum of understanding that reopened the Strait of Hormuz under monitored terms. Negotiations continue through intermediaries on sanctions relief and nuclear issues, with both sides prioritizing de-escalation to avoid domestic economic fallout from renewed disruption. While post-election resumption remains possible if talks stall, the administration’s current posture and the short timeline to voting have produced the observed 72.5% implied probability for continuation.