**Escalating U.S.-Iran naval clashes and targeted strikes on tankers have driven commercial vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz to single-digit daily levels throughout early September 2026, producing a week-of-September-7 total that aligns squarely with the 35-39 bin.** Kpler and IMF PortWatch satellite-derived counts show averages of roughly three to six commodity vessels per day against a pre-crisis baseline near 85, reflecting widespread AIS deactivation, war-risk premiums running 15 times peacetime levels, and roughly 1,100 vessels idled or diverted. This market-implied outcome, backed by real-capital trader consensus, captures the persistent disruption from IRGC retaliation and U.S. enforcement actions that began intensifying in late August. A rapid de-escalation or verifiable surge in coordinated “dark” transits could still shift the final tally, though current data releases through mid-September leave little room for material revision.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of September 7?
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of September 7?
35-39 100.0%
<20 <1%
20-24 <1%
25-29 <1%
$124,217 Vol.
$124,217 Vol.
Sep 13, 2026
<20
No
20-24
No
25-29
No
30-34
No
35-39
Yes
40+
No
35-39 100.0%
<20 <1%
20-24 <1%
25-29 <1%
$124,217 Vol.
$124,217 Vol.
Sep 13, 2026
<20
$38,254 Vol.
No
20-24
$39,789 Vol.
No
25-29
$15,933 Vol.
No
30-34
$6,034 Vol.
No
35-39
$12,285 Vol.
Yes
40+
$11,922 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Escalating U.S.-Iran naval clashes and targeted strikes on tankers have driven commercial vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz to single-digit daily levels throughout early September 2026, producing a week-of-September-7 total that aligns squarely with the 35-39 bin.** Kpler and IMF PortWatch satellite-derived counts show averages of roughly three to six commodity vessels per day against a pre-crisis baseline near 85, reflecting widespread AIS deactivation, war-risk premiums running 15 times peacetime levels, and roughly 1,100 vessels idled or diverted. This market-implied outcome, backed by real-capital trader consensus, captures the persistent disruption from IRGC retaliation and U.S. enforcement actions that began intensifying in late August. A rapid de-escalation or verifiable surge in coordinated “dark” transits could still shift the final tally, though current data releases through mid-September leave little room for material revision.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 10:25 AM ET
Volume
$124,217End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 10:25 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Escalating U.S.-Iran naval clashes and targeted strikes on tankers have driven commercial vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz to single-digit daily levels throughout early September 2026, producing a week-of-September-7 total that aligns squarely with the 35-39 bin.** Kpler and IMF PortWatch satellite-derived counts show averages of roughly three to six commodity vessels per day against a pre-crisis baseline near 85, reflecting widespread AIS deactivation, war-risk premiums running 15 times peacetime levels, and roughly 1,100 vessels idled or diverted. This market-implied outcome, backed by real-capital trader consensus, captures the persistent disruption from IRGC retaliation and U.S. enforcement actions that began intensifying in late August. A rapid de-escalation or verifiable surge in coordinated “dark” transits could still shift the final tally, though current data releases through mid-September leave little room for material revision.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$124,217End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 10:25 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
**Escalating U.S.-Iran naval clashes and targeted strikes on tankers have driven commercial vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz to single-digit daily levels throughout early September 2026, producing a week-of-September-7 total that aligns squarely with the 35-39 bin.** Kpler and IMF PortWatch satellite-derived counts show averages of roughly three to six commodity vessels per day against a pre-crisis baseline near 85, reflecting widespread AIS deactivation, war-risk premiums running 15 times peacetime levels, and roughly 1,100 vessels idled or diverted. This market-implied outcome, backed by real-capital trader consensus, captures the persistent disruption from IRGC retaliation and U.S. enforcement actions that began intensifying in late August. A rapid de-escalation or verifiable surge in coordinated “dark” transits could still shift the final tally, though current data releases through mid-September leave little room for material revision.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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