Iran’s supreme leader position underwent a rapid transition after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late February 2026 during U.S.-Israeli strikes that also killed several senior aides. The Assembly of Experts selected his son Mojtaba Khamenei as successor in early March, establishing continuity amid wartime conditions while a temporary council of the president, judiciary chief, and a Guardian Council jurist managed interim duties. Mojtaba has maintained authority with limited public visibility due to security concerns, alongside reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian handling domestic matters under IRGC influence. No further leadership shifts have occurred through September 2026, though ongoing regional tensions and the Assembly’s role in future selections remain structural factors that could influence any subsequent change.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$26,004,220 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
September 30
1%
October 31
5%
November 30
8%
December 31
15%
June 30, 2027
26%
$26,004,220 Vol.
September 30
$1,546,042 Vol.
1%
October 31
$123,787 Vol.
5%
November 30
$47,898 Vol.
8%
December 31
$4,675,470 Vol.
15%
June 30, 2027
$323,887 Vol.
26%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s supreme leader position underwent a rapid transition after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late February 2026 during U.S.-Israeli strikes that also killed several senior aides. The Assembly of Experts selected his son Mojtaba Khamenei as successor in early March, establishing continuity amid wartime conditions while a temporary council of the president, judiciary chief, and a Guardian Council jurist managed interim duties. Mojtaba has maintained authority with limited public visibility due to security concerns, alongside reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian handling domestic matters under IRGC influence. No further leadership shifts have occurred through September 2026, though ongoing regional tensions and the Assembly’s role in future selections remain structural factors that could influence any subsequent change.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jul 21, 2026, 11:05 AM ET
Volume
$26,004,220End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 21, 2026, 11:05 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s supreme leader position underwent a rapid transition after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late February 2026 during U.S.-Israeli strikes that also killed several senior aides. The Assembly of Experts selected his son Mojtaba Khamenei as successor in early March, establishing continuity amid wartime conditions while a temporary council of the president, judiciary chief, and a Guardian Council jurist managed interim duties. Mojtaba has maintained authority with limited public visibility due to security concerns, alongside reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian handling domestic matters under IRGC influence. No further leadership shifts have occurred through September 2026, though ongoing regional tensions and the Assembly’s role in future selections remain structural factors that could influence any subsequent change.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$26,004,220End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 21, 2026, 11:05 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Iran’s supreme leader position underwent a rapid transition after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late February 2026 during U.S.-Israeli strikes that also killed several senior aides. The Assembly of Experts selected his son Mojtaba Khamenei as successor in early March, establishing continuity amid wartime conditions while a temporary council of the president, judiciary chief, and a Guardian Council jurist managed interim duties. Mojtaba has maintained authority with limited public visibility due to security concerns, alongside reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian handling domestic matters under IRGC influence. No further leadership shifts have occurred through September 2026, though ongoing regional tensions and the Assembly’s role in future selections remain structural factors that could influence any subsequent change.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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