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icon for John Ratcliffe out as CIA Director by December 31?
Politics·Ciara

John Ratcliffe out as CIA Director by December 31?

icon for John Ratcliffe out as CIA Director by December 31?
Politics·Ciara

John Ratcliffe out as CIA Director by December 31?

Dec 31

Dec 31

10% chance
Polymarket
NEW
10% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve to “Yes” if John Ratcliffe ceases to be U.S. Director of the Central Intelligence Agency for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of John Ratcliffe's resignation/removal by this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from John Ratcliffe and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.John Ratcliffe has served as CIA Director since his January 2025 Senate confirmation, maintaining an active leadership role through mid-2026 with no reported signals of resignation or removal. Recent developments include his late August 2026 unannounced Moscow visit to convey warnings on NATO security, Iran support, and Ukraine negotiations, followed by preparations for an expanded diplomatic role in Russia-Ukraine talks as of early September. The director has also advanced internal reforms, including accelerated technology acquisitions, AI integration, mission center reorganizations, and workforce adjustments aligned with administration priorities. These factors, combined with consistent White House engagement and absence of confirmation or confirmation-hearing disputes, underpin trader consensus that Ratcliffe will remain in the position through December 31.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if John Ratcliffe ceases to be U.S. Director of the Central Intelligence Agency for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of John Ratcliffe's resignation/removal by this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from John Ratcliffe and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if John Ratcliffe ceases to be U.S. Director of the Central Intelligence Agency for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of John Ratcliffe's resignation/removal by this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from John Ratcliffe and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,492
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 6:33 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if John Ratcliffe ceases to be U.S. Director of the Central Intelligence Agency for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of John Ratcliffe's resignation/removal by this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from John Ratcliffe and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.John Ratcliffe has served as CIA Director since his January 2025 Senate confirmation, maintaining an active leadership role through mid-2026 with no reported signals of resignation or removal. Recent developments include his late August 2026 unannounced Moscow visit to convey warnings on NATO security, Iran support, and Ukraine negotiations, followed by preparations for an expanded diplomatic role in Russia-Ukraine talks as of early September. The director has also advanced internal reforms, including accelerated technology acquisitions, AI integration, mission center reorganizations, and workforce adjustments aligned with administration priorities. These factors, combined with consistent White House engagement and absence of confirmation or confirmation-hearing disputes, underpin trader consensus that Ratcliffe will remain in the position through December 31.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if John Ratcliffe ceases to be U.S. Director of the Central Intelligence Agency for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of John Ratcliffe's resignation/removal by this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from John Ratcliffe and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if John Ratcliffe ceases to be U.S. Director of the Central Intelligence Agency for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of John Ratcliffe's resignation/removal by this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from John Ratcliffe and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,492
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 6:33 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"John Ratcliffe out as CIA Director by December 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 10% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 10¢, the market collectively assigns a 10% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"John Ratcliffe out as CIA Director by December 31?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jul 29, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "John Ratcliffe out as CIA Director by December 31?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "John Ratcliffe out as CIA Director by December 31?" is 10% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 10% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "John Ratcliffe out as CIA Director by December 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.