Trader sentiment for the July 2026 US headline CPI month-over-month reading centers on the expected rebound to +0.1% after June’s outsized 0.4% decline, which was fueled by a sharp drop in energy prices. Consensus forecasts and nowcasts aligned on this modest increase, reflecting stable shelter contributions—accounting for roughly two-thirds of the monthly move—alongside moderating gasoline prices that eased but did not repeat the prior plunge. With core CPI projected near 0.2% MoM and year-over-year inflation tracking toward 3.4%, the 99.6% implied probability for ≥0.1% captures broad agreement on contained disinflation amid steady labor-market and commodity conditions. A deeper energy-price collapse or broad-based weakness in services and goods components could still shift the outcome lower, though recent BLS and Fed-aligned data indicate limited scope for such surprises ahead of the release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated≥0.1% 99.6%
≤-0.7% <1%
-0.6% <1%
-0.5% <1%
$305,146 Vol.
$305,146 Vol.
Aug 12, 2026
≤-0.7%
No
-0.6%
No
-0.5%
No
-0.4%
No
-0.3%
No
-0.2%
No
-0.1%
No
0.0%
No
≥0.1%
Yes
≥0.1% 99.6%
≤-0.7% <1%
-0.6% <1%
-0.5% <1%
$305,146 Vol.
$305,146 Vol.
Aug 12, 2026
≤-0.7%
$19,527 Vol.
No
-0.6%
$12,125 Vol.
No
-0.5%
$12,971 Vol.
No
-0.4%
$13,692 Vol.
No
-0.3%
$13,314 Vol.
No
-0.2%
$15,515 Vol.
No
-0.1%
$29,884 Vol.
No
0.0%
$67,046 Vol.
No
≥0.1%
$121,071 Vol.
Yes
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in July 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for July 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on August 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Trader sentiment for the July 2026 US headline CPI month-over-month reading centers on the expected rebound to +0.1% after June’s outsized 0.4% decline, which was fueled by a sharp drop in energy prices. Consensus forecasts and nowcasts aligned on this modest increase, reflecting stable shelter contributions—accounting for roughly two-thirds of the monthly move—alongside moderating gasoline prices that eased but did not repeat the prior plunge. With core CPI projected near 0.2% MoM and year-over-year inflation tracking toward 3.4%, the 99.6% implied probability for ≥0.1% captures broad agreement on contained disinflation amid steady labor-market and commodity conditions. A deeper energy-price collapse or broad-based weakness in services and goods components could still shift the outcome lower, though recent BLS and Fed-aligned data indicate limited scope for such surprises ahead of the release.
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in July 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for July 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on August 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in July 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for July 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on August 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Market Opened: Jul 14, 2026, 1:39 PM ET
Volume
$305,146End Date
Aug 12, 2026Market Opened
Jul 14, 2026, 1:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in July 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for July 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on August 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Trader sentiment for the July 2026 US headline CPI month-over-month reading centers on the expected rebound to +0.1% after June’s outsized 0.4% decline, which was fueled by a sharp drop in energy prices. Consensus forecasts and nowcasts aligned on this modest increase, reflecting stable shelter contributions—accounting for roughly two-thirds of the monthly move—alongside moderating gasoline prices that eased but did not repeat the prior plunge. With core CPI projected near 0.2% MoM and year-over-year inflation tracking toward 3.4%, the 99.6% implied probability for ≥0.1% captures broad agreement on contained disinflation amid steady labor-market and commodity conditions. A deeper energy-price collapse or broad-based weakness in services and goods components could still shift the outcome lower, though recent BLS and Fed-aligned data indicate limited scope for such surprises ahead of the release.
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in July 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for July 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on August 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in July 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for July 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on August 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$305,146End Date
Aug 12, 2026Market Opened
Jul 14, 2026, 1:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader sentiment for the July 2026 US headline CPI month-over-month reading centers on the expected rebound to +0.1% after June’s outsized 0.4% decline, which was fueled by a sharp drop in energy prices. Consensus forecasts and nowcasts aligned on this modest increase, reflecting stable shelter contributions—accounting for roughly two-thirds of the monthly move—alongside moderating gasoline prices that eased but did not repeat the prior plunge. With core CPI projected near 0.2% MoM and year-over-year inflation tracking toward 3.4%, the 99.6% implied probability for ≥0.1% captures broad agreement on contained disinflation amid steady labor-market and commodity conditions. A deeper energy-price collapse or broad-based weakness in services and goods components could still shift the outcome lower, though recent BLS and Fed-aligned data indicate limited scope for such surprises ahead of the release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions