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Geopolitics·Chechnya

Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by...?

icon for Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by...?
Geopolitics·Chechnya

Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by...?

$259,357 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$259,357 Vol.

Polymarket

June 30

$117,699 Vol.

4%

December 31

$45,936 Vol.

18%

Ramzan Kadyrov is currently serving as the Head of the Chechen Republic, the highest political office of the Chechen Republic, a Republic of Russia. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ramzan Kadyrov ceases to be Head of the Chechen Republic for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Ramzan Kadyrov will be considered to cease being the Head of the Chechen Republic if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Head of the Chechen Republic within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Chechen Republic and the Russian Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Ramzan Kadyrov remains firmly entrenched as Head of the Chechen Republic, bolstered by strong Kremlin support despite persistent unverified rumors of kidney failure and dialysis treatments circulating since early 2026. Recent public appearances, including official meetings and video statements dismissing health speculations as "fake," have sustained his position amid speculation over family successors like sons Akhmat or Adam. Ukrainian drone strikes on Grozny military sites last week heightened regional tensions but did not alter his leadership status. Traders should watch for the September 2026 Chechen head elections, where Kadyrov has Kremlin approval to run again, alongside any escalation in health reports or federal power shifts that could trigger a managed transition.

Ramzan Kadyrov is currently serving as the Head of the Chechen Republic, the highest political office of the Chechen Republic, a Republic of Russia.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ramzan Kadyrov ceases to be Head of the Chechen Republic for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Ramzan Kadyrov will be considered to cease being the Head of the Chechen Republic if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Head of the Chechen Republic within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Chechen Republic and the Russian Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$259,357
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 14, 2026, 5:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Ramzan Kadyrov is currently serving as the Head of the Chechen Republic, the highest political office of the Chechen Republic, a Republic of Russia. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ramzan Kadyrov ceases to be Head of the Chechen Republic for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Ramzan Kadyrov will be considered to cease being the Head of the Chechen Republic if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Head of the Chechen Republic within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Chechen Republic and the Russian Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Ramzan Kadyrov is currently serving as the Head of the Chechen Republic, the highest political office of the Chechen Republic, a Republic of Russia. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ramzan Kadyrov ceases to be Head of the Chechen Republic for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Ramzan Kadyrov will be considered to cease being the Head of the Chechen Republic if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Head of the Chechen Republic within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Chechen Republic and the Russian Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Ramzan Kadyrov remains firmly entrenched as Head of the Chechen Republic, bolstered by strong Kremlin support despite persistent unverified rumors of kidney failure and dialysis treatments circulating since early 2026. Recent public appearances, including official meetings and video statements dismissing health speculations as "fake," have sustained his position amid speculation over family successors like sons Akhmat or Adam. Ukrainian drone strikes on Grozny military sites last week heightened regional tensions but did not alter his leadership status. Traders should watch for the September 2026 Chechen head elections, where Kadyrov has Kremlin approval to run again, alongside any escalation in health reports or federal power shifts that could trigger a managed transition.

Ramzan Kadyrov is currently serving as the Head of the Chechen Republic, the highest political office of the Chechen Republic, a Republic of Russia.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ramzan Kadyrov ceases to be Head of the Chechen Republic for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Ramzan Kadyrov will be considered to cease being the Head of the Chechen Republic if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Head of the Chechen Republic within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Chechen Republic and the Russian Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$259,357
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 14, 2026, 5:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Ramzan Kadyrov is currently serving as the Head of the Chechen Republic, the highest political office of the Chechen Republic, a Republic of Russia. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ramzan Kadyrov ceases to be Head of the Chechen Republic for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Ramzan Kadyrov will be considered to cease being the Head of the Chechen Republic if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Head of the Chechen Republic within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Chechen Republic and the Russian Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "December 31" at 18%, followed by "June 30" at 4%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 18¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by...?" has generated $259.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 14, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by...?," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by...?" is "December 31" at 18%, meaning the market assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "June 30" at 4%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.