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icon for Lecornu out as French PM by...?
Politics·France

Lecornu out as French PM by...?

icon for Lecornu out as French PM by...?
Politics·France

Lecornu out as French PM by...?

$321,427 Vol.

Jun 30, 2026
Polymarket

$321,427 Vol.

Polymarket

June 30, 2026

$20,614 Vol.

2%

December 31, 2026

$7,373 Vol.

30%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Sébastien Lecornu ceases to be Prime Minister of France for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Sébastien Lecornu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Sébastien Lecornu and the government of France; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.France's Assemblée Nationale remains deeply fragmented following the 2024 snap elections, leaving Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu's minority government reliant on abstentions from centrists and select Socialists to survive no-confidence motions. Lecornu, appointed in September 2025 after François Bayrou's ouster and reappointed following a brief October resignation, secured the 2026 budget in February via repeated Article 49.3 invocations, defeating multiple censure votes from La France Insoumise and Rassemblement National. No notable political challenges have emerged in the past 30 days, with Lecornu focusing on crisis management like the recent hantavirus outbreak. Traders should watch for upcoming legislative debates or fiscal deadlines that could prompt new motions de censure before the 2027 presidential race.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Sébastien Lecornu ceases to be Prime Minister of France for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Sébastien Lecornu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Sébastien Lecornu and the government of France; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$321,427
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 4, 2025, 12:19 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Sébastien Lecornu ceases to be Prime Minister of France for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Sébastien Lecornu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Sébastien Lecornu and the government of France; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Sébastien Lecornu ceases to be Prime Minister of France for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Sébastien Lecornu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Sébastien Lecornu and the government of France; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.France's Assemblée Nationale remains deeply fragmented following the 2024 snap elections, leaving Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu's minority government reliant on abstentions from centrists and select Socialists to survive no-confidence motions. Lecornu, appointed in September 2025 after François Bayrou's ouster and reappointed following a brief October resignation, secured the 2026 budget in February via repeated Article 49.3 invocations, defeating multiple censure votes from La France Insoumise and Rassemblement National. No notable political challenges have emerged in the past 30 days, with Lecornu focusing on crisis management like the recent hantavirus outbreak. Traders should watch for upcoming legislative debates or fiscal deadlines that could prompt new motions de censure before the 2027 presidential race.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Sébastien Lecornu ceases to be Prime Minister of France for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Sébastien Lecornu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Sébastien Lecornu and the government of France; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$321,427
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 4, 2025, 12:19 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Sébastien Lecornu ceases to be Prime Minister of France for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Sébastien Lecornu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Sébastien Lecornu and the government of France; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Lecornu out as French PM by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "December 31, 2026" at 30%, followed by "June 30, 2026" at 2%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 30¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 30% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Lecornu out as French PM by...?" has generated $321.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Lecornu out as French PM by...?," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Lecornu out as French PM by...?" is "December 31, 2026" at 30%, meaning the market assigns a 30% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "June 30, 2026" at 2%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Lecornu out as French PM by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.