Forecast models for Amsterdam on September 11 show a narrow range of overnight lows near 12–14°C, with southerly flow and high humidity limiting radiative cooling while scattered showers and increasing westerly winds introduce variability. Consensus from GFS and similar runs points to a daily minimum around 13°C under mostly cloudy conditions, yet modest shifts in timing or strength of an approaching front could push readings several degrees lower if skies clear briefly or higher if mild advection strengthens. Historical September averages near 11°C provide context, but current pressure gradients and dew points near 12–15°C keep the distribution tight, explaining why market-implied probabilities cluster around the central outcomes with limited conviction on extremes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Amsterdam on September 11?
Lowest temperature in Amsterdam on September 11?
8°C or below 85%
18°C or higher 85%
10°C 34%
15°C 30%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
8°C or below
85%
9°C
13%
10°C
34%
11°C
25%
12°C
24%
13°C
22%
14°C
22%
15°C
30%
16°C
5%
17°C
11%
18°C or higher
85%
8°C or below 85%
18°C or higher 85%
10°C 34%
15°C 30%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
8°C or below
$0 Vol.
85%
9°C
$0 Vol.
13%
10°C
$0 Vol.
34%
11°C
$0 Vol.
25%
12°C
$0 Vol.
24%
13°C
$0 Vol.
22%
14°C
$0 Vol.
22%
15°C
$0 Vol.
30%
16°C
$0 Vol.
5%
17°C
$0 Vol.
11%
18°C or higher
$0 Vol.
85%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models for Amsterdam on September 11 show a narrow range of overnight lows near 12–14°C, with southerly flow and high humidity limiting radiative cooling while scattered showers and increasing westerly winds introduce variability. Consensus from GFS and similar runs points to a daily minimum around 13°C under mostly cloudy conditions, yet modest shifts in timing or strength of an approaching front could push readings several degrees lower if skies clear briefly or higher if mild advection strengthens. Historical September averages near 11°C provide context, but current pressure gradients and dew points near 12–15°C keep the distribution tight, explaining why market-implied probabilities cluster around the central outcomes with limited conviction on extremes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 9, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models for Amsterdam on September 11 show a narrow range of overnight lows near 12–14°C, with southerly flow and high humidity limiting radiative cooling while scattered showers and increasing westerly winds introduce variability. Consensus from GFS and similar runs points to a daily minimum around 13°C under mostly cloudy conditions, yet modest shifts in timing or strength of an approaching front could push readings several degrees lower if skies clear briefly or higher if mild advection strengthens. Historical September averages near 11°C provide context, but current pressure gradients and dew points near 12–15°C keep the distribution tight, explaining why market-implied probabilities cluster around the central outcomes with limited conviction on extremes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models for Amsterdam on September 11 show a narrow range of overnight lows near 12–14°C, with southerly flow and high humidity limiting radiative cooling while scattered showers and increasing westerly winds introduce variability. Consensus from GFS and similar runs points to a daily minimum around 13°C under mostly cloudy conditions, yet modest shifts in timing or strength of an approaching front could push readings several degrees lower if skies clear briefly or higher if mild advection strengthens. Historical September averages near 11°C provide context, but current pressure gradients and dew points near 12–15°C keep the distribution tight, explaining why market-implied probabilities cluster around the central outcomes with limited conviction on extremes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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