**Forecast uncertainty in overnight minimum temperatures is driving the near-even split between sub-7°C and 17°C+ outcomes for Amsterdam on September 12.** Current model guidance from sources including ECMWF, GFS, and Met Office runs shows daytime highs near 19–23°C but wide divergence in the nocturnal low, centered around 12–14°C under variable cloud cover and light southwesterly winds. Clear-sky radiational cooling could push readings well below seasonal norms if an anticyclone strengthens and winds remain calm, while increased cloudiness, showers, or warmer maritime advection would keep the minimum milder. This ensemble spread and sensitivity to small changes in boundary-layer conditions explain why traders assign roughly equal weight to the extremes rather than clustering on the most probable mid-range values.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Amsterdam on September 12?
Lowest temperature in Amsterdam on September 12?
7°C or below 100%
17°C or higher 98%
10°C 40%
11°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
7°C or below
100%
8°C
39%
9°C
39%
10°C
40%
11°C
40%
12°C
40%
13°C
39%
14°C
39%
15°C
39%
16°C
39%
17°C or higher
98%
7°C or below 100%
17°C or higher 98%
10°C 40%
11°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
7°C or below
$0 Vol.
100%
8°C
$0 Vol.
39%
9°C
$0 Vol.
39%
10°C
$0 Vol.
40%
11°C
$0 Vol.
40%
12°C
$0 Vol.
40%
13°C
$0 Vol.
39%
14°C
$0 Vol.
39%
15°C
$0 Vol.
39%
16°C
$0 Vol.
39%
17°C or higher
$0 Vol.
98%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast uncertainty in overnight minimum temperatures is driving the near-even split between sub-7°C and 17°C+ outcomes for Amsterdam on September 12.** Current model guidance from sources including ECMWF, GFS, and Met Office runs shows daytime highs near 19–23°C but wide divergence in the nocturnal low, centered around 12–14°C under variable cloud cover and light southwesterly winds. Clear-sky radiational cooling could push readings well below seasonal norms if an anticyclone strengthens and winds remain calm, while increased cloudiness, showers, or warmer maritime advection would keep the minimum milder. This ensemble spread and sensitivity to small changes in boundary-layer conditions explain why traders assign roughly equal weight to the extremes rather than clustering on the most probable mid-range values.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 10, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast uncertainty in overnight minimum temperatures is driving the near-even split between sub-7°C and 17°C+ outcomes for Amsterdam on September 12.** Current model guidance from sources including ECMWF, GFS, and Met Office runs shows daytime highs near 19–23°C but wide divergence in the nocturnal low, centered around 12–14°C under variable cloud cover and light southwesterly winds. Clear-sky radiational cooling could push readings well below seasonal norms if an anticyclone strengthens and winds remain calm, while increased cloudiness, showers, or warmer maritime advection would keep the minimum milder. This ensemble spread and sensitivity to small changes in boundary-layer conditions explain why traders assign roughly equal weight to the extremes rather than clustering on the most probable mid-range values.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast uncertainty in overnight minimum temperatures is driving the near-even split between sub-7°C and 17°C+ outcomes for Amsterdam on September 12.** Current model guidance from sources including ECMWF, GFS, and Met Office runs shows daytime highs near 19–23°C but wide divergence in the nocturnal low, centered around 12–14°C under variable cloud cover and light southwesterly winds. Clear-sky radiational cooling could push readings well below seasonal norms if an anticyclone strengthens and winds remain calm, while increased cloudiness, showers, or warmer maritime advection would keep the minimum milder. This ensemble spread and sensitivity to small changes in boundary-layer conditions explain why traders assign roughly equal weight to the extremes rather than clustering on the most probable mid-range values.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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