**Recent cold front passage and persistent southerly winds are the main drivers keeping trader-implied odds nearly even between a minimum of 11°C or below (49.5%) and 21°C or higher (49.0%).** Official Servicio Meteorológico Nacional guidance and ensemble models show October 8 minima clustered around 12–14°C under overcast skies, light rain or drizzle, and winds shifting southeast at 20–30 km/h. These conditions limit nighttime radiative cooling while the cool air mass suppresses daytime highs near 17–19°C. Model spread arises from uncertainty in exact frontal timing, cloud persistence, and any late-day wind shift that could allow brief warming or enhanced cooling. With resolution in roughly 48 hours, traders are weighting the latest 00Z–12Z runs and any SMN updates that could narrow the 11–21°C range.