Recent forecast runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and national meteorological services indicate a northerly flow and possible cold-air advection over southern Finland, driving the 47% implied probability on 8°C or below for Helsinki's September 1 low. This setup favors clearer skies and radiational cooling overnight, though ensemble spreads show notable uncertainty in exact minimums due to variable cloud cover and timing of any frontal passage. Trader positioning also reflects the 26-27% odds clustered around 12-13°C, consistent with climatological September averages near 10-12°C when milder maritime air dominates. Updated model guidance and observational data from the Finnish Meteorological Institute will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Helsinki on September 1?
Lowest temperature in Helsinki on September 1?
8°C or below 92%
18°C or higher 54%
10°C 49%
11°C 49%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
8°C or below
92%
9°C
47%
10°C
49%
11°C
49%
12°C
26%
13°C
26%
14°C
49%
15°C
49%
16°C
2%
17°C
8%
18°C or higher
54%
8°C or below 92%
18°C or higher 54%
10°C 49%
11°C 49%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
8°C or below
$0 Vol.
92%
9°C
$0 Vol.
47%
10°C
$0 Vol.
49%
11°C
$0 Vol.
49%
12°C
$0 Vol.
26%
13°C
$0 Vol.
26%
14°C
$0 Vol.
49%
15°C
$0 Vol.
49%
16°C
$0 Vol.
2%
17°C
$0 Vol.
8%
18°C or higher
$0 Vol.
54%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and national meteorological services indicate a northerly flow and possible cold-air advection over southern Finland, driving the 47% implied probability on 8°C or below for Helsinki's September 1 low. This setup favors clearer skies and radiational cooling overnight, though ensemble spreads show notable uncertainty in exact minimums due to variable cloud cover and timing of any frontal passage. Trader positioning also reflects the 26-27% odds clustered around 12-13°C, consistent with climatological September averages near 10-12°C when milder maritime air dominates. Updated model guidance and observational data from the Finnish Meteorological Institute will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 30, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 30, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhkResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and national meteorological services indicate a northerly flow and possible cold-air advection over southern Finland, driving the 47% implied probability on 8°C or below for Helsinki's September 1 low. This setup favors clearer skies and radiational cooling overnight, though ensemble spreads show notable uncertainty in exact minimums due to variable cloud cover and timing of any frontal passage. Trader positioning also reflects the 26-27% odds clustered around 12-13°C, consistent with climatological September averages near 10-12°C when milder maritime air dominates. Updated model guidance and observational data from the Finnish Meteorological Institute will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 30, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhkResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and national meteorological services indicate a northerly flow and possible cold-air advection over southern Finland, driving the 47% implied probability on 8°C or below for Helsinki's September 1 low. This setup favors clearer skies and radiational cooling overnight, though ensemble spreads show notable uncertainty in exact minimums due to variable cloud cover and timing of any frontal passage. Trader positioning also reflects the 26-27% odds clustered around 12-13°C, consistent with climatological September averages near 10-12°C when milder maritime air dominates. Updated model guidance and observational data from the Finnish Meteorological Institute will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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