**Clear skies, light winds, and dry high-pressure conditions are supporting radiative cooling overnight, positioning the lowest temperature in Madrid on September 21 near or below the 14–15°C range that currently commands the highest market-implied odds.** Multiple forecasts indicate daytime highs of 30–32°C under sunny conditions, with overnight lows expected in the 15–17°C band depending on the exact timing of minimum temperatures and local measurement sites. Recent days have featured similar clear, stable patterns with recorded lows around 13–17°C, consistent with late-September climatology where average minima hover near 14–15°C. Model consensus points to minimal cloud cover and weak winds through the night, which enhance heat loss from the surface and favor the lower end of the distribution. Updated agency guidance or any late shifts in boundary-layer moisture could still influence the final overnight minimum before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Madrid on September 21?
Lowest temperature in Madrid on September 21?
14°C or below 100%
15°C 39%
16°C 39%
17°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 21, 2026
14°C or below
100%
15°C
39%
16°C
39%
17°C
39%
18°C
39%
19°C
2%
20°C
2%
21°C
2%
22°C
2%
23°C
2%
24°C or higher
2%
14°C or below 100%
15°C 39%
16°C 39%
17°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 21, 2026
14°C or below
$0 Vol.
100%
15°C
$0 Vol.
39%
16°C
$0 Vol.
39%
17°C
$0 Vol.
39%
18°C
$0 Vol.
39%
19°C
$0 Vol.
2%
20°C
$0 Vol.
2%
21°C
$0 Vol.
2%
22°C
$0 Vol.
2%
23°C
$0 Vol.
2%
24°C or higher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Clear skies, light winds, and dry high-pressure conditions are supporting radiative cooling overnight, positioning the lowest temperature in Madrid on September 21 near or below the 14–15°C range that currently commands the highest market-implied odds.** Multiple forecasts indicate daytime highs of 30–32°C under sunny conditions, with overnight lows expected in the 15–17°C band depending on the exact timing of minimum temperatures and local measurement sites. Recent days have featured similar clear, stable patterns with recorded lows around 13–17°C, consistent with late-September climatology where average minima hover near 14–15°C. Model consensus points to minimal cloud cover and weak winds through the night, which enhance heat loss from the surface and favor the lower end of the distribution. Updated agency guidance or any late shifts in boundary-layer moisture could still influence the final overnight minimum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Clear skies, light winds, and dry high-pressure conditions are supporting radiative cooling overnight, positioning the lowest temperature in Madrid on September 21 near or below the 14–15°C range that currently commands the highest market-implied odds.** Multiple forecasts indicate daytime highs of 30–32°C under sunny conditions, with overnight lows expected in the 15–17°C band depending on the exact timing of minimum temperatures and local measurement sites. Recent days have featured similar clear, stable patterns with recorded lows around 13–17°C, consistent with late-September climatology where average minima hover near 14–15°C. Model consensus points to minimal cloud cover and weak winds through the night, which enhance heat loss from the surface and favor the lower end of the distribution. Updated agency guidance or any late shifts in boundary-layer moisture could still influence the final overnight minimum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Clear skies, light winds, and dry high-pressure conditions are supporting radiative cooling overnight, positioning the lowest temperature in Madrid on September 21 near or below the 14–15°C range that currently commands the highest market-implied odds.** Multiple forecasts indicate daytime highs of 30–32°C under sunny conditions, with overnight lows expected in the 15–17°C band depending on the exact timing of minimum temperatures and local measurement sites. Recent days have featured similar clear, stable patterns with recorded lows around 13–17°C, consistent with late-September climatology where average minima hover near 14–15°C. Model consensus points to minimal cloud cover and weak winds through the night, which enhance heat loss from the surface and favor the lower end of the distribution. Updated agency guidance or any late shifts in boundary-layer moisture could still influence the final overnight minimum before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions