Current forecast models from sources like GFS and regional agencies project a minimum temperature in Madrid on September 5 in the 23–25°C range, driven by a persistent warm air mass, light variable winds, and partly cloudy skies that limit nocturnal radiative cooling amid an ongoing early-September heat spell with daytime highs near 35–38°C. Historical September averages for the date sit near 17°C lows, but the current setup shows no incoming cold front or significant moisture to enhance cooling. Trader-implied odds concentrate around 24–25°C outcomes, aligning with this consensus while assigning lower weight to outliers, reflecting uncertainty in exact overnight cloud cover and urban heat effects. Updated model runs and official AEMET guidance expected in the next 24 hours could refine the range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Madrid on September 5?
Lowest temperature in Madrid on September 5?
24°C or below 50%
34°C or higher 49%
25°C 25%
27°C 20%
NEW
NEW
Sep 5, 2026
24°C or below
50%
25°C
25%
26°C
2%
27°C
20%
28°C
20%
29°C
20%
30°C
20%
31°C
19%
32°C
20%
33°C
8%
34°C or higher
49%
24°C or below 50%
34°C or higher 49%
25°C 25%
27°C 20%
NEW
NEW
Sep 5, 2026
24°C or below
$0 Vol.
50%
25°C
$10 Vol.
25%
26°C
$0 Vol.
2%
27°C
$0 Vol.
20%
28°C
$0 Vol.
20%
29°C
$0 Vol.
20%
30°C
$0 Vol.
20%
31°C
$0 Vol.
19%
32°C
$0 Vol.
20%
33°C
$0 Vol.
8%
34°C or higher
$0 Vol.
49%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from sources like GFS and regional agencies project a minimum temperature in Madrid on September 5 in the 23–25°C range, driven by a persistent warm air mass, light variable winds, and partly cloudy skies that limit nocturnal radiative cooling amid an ongoing early-September heat spell with daytime highs near 35–38°C. Historical September averages for the date sit near 17°C lows, but the current setup shows no incoming cold front or significant moisture to enhance cooling. Trader-implied odds concentrate around 24–25°C outcomes, aligning with this consensus while assigning lower weight to outliers, reflecting uncertainty in exact overnight cloud cover and urban heat effects. Updated model runs and official AEMET guidance expected in the next 24 hours could refine the range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$10End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from sources like GFS and regional agencies project a minimum temperature in Madrid on September 5 in the 23–25°C range, driven by a persistent warm air mass, light variable winds, and partly cloudy skies that limit nocturnal radiative cooling amid an ongoing early-September heat spell with daytime highs near 35–38°C. Historical September averages for the date sit near 17°C lows, but the current setup shows no incoming cold front or significant moisture to enhance cooling. Trader-implied odds concentrate around 24–25°C outcomes, aligning with this consensus while assigning lower weight to outliers, reflecting uncertainty in exact overnight cloud cover and urban heat effects. Updated model runs and official AEMET guidance expected in the next 24 hours could refine the range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$10End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast models from sources like GFS and regional agencies project a minimum temperature in Madrid on September 5 in the 23–25°C range, driven by a persistent warm air mass, light variable winds, and partly cloudy skies that limit nocturnal radiative cooling amid an ongoing early-September heat spell with daytime highs near 35–38°C. Historical September averages for the date sit near 17°C lows, but the current setup shows no incoming cold front or significant moisture to enhance cooling. Trader-implied odds concentrate around 24–25°C outcomes, aligning with this consensus while assigning lower weight to outliers, reflecting uncertainty in exact overnight cloud cover and urban heat effects. Updated model runs and official AEMET guidance expected in the next 24 hours could refine the range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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