Traders assign an 89% implied probability to an 80-81°F low in Miami on June 14 because official forecasts from the National Weather Service and models such as those referenced by AccuWeather and Timeanddate consistently project overnight minima in the upper 70s to low 80s amid typical early-summer conditions. High humidity, weak pressure gradients, and the urban heat island effect limit radiative cooling after daytime highs near 90°F, keeping temperatures elevated through the night. No cold fronts or atypical steering patterns have emerged in recent model runs, aligning with climatological baselines where mid-June lows average near 77-78°F but often reach the low 80s under stable subtropical air. Upcoming evening observations and any last adjustments from the National Hurricane Center or local NWS offices represent the primary remaining variables before market resolution.