Recent model guidance and observational trends point to radiative cooling under partly clear skies and a weakening high-pressure system as the main drivers positioning 9°C or below as the leading outcome for Moscow’s minimum temperature on August 21. Late-August climatology already favors progressively lower overnight lows as daylight shortens and soil moisture supports greater heat loss, with historical averages near 12–14°C giving way to cooler readings when northerly flow or calm conditions prevail. Trader consensus reflected in the 45.5% implied probability on sub-10°C outcomes aligns with this seasonal shift, while the clustered probabilities around 11–13°C acknowledge forecast uncertainty from evolving cloud cover and wind patterns. Updated ECMWF and GFS runs expected overnight will clarify whether a stronger cold advection episode materializes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Moscow on August 21?
Lowest temperature in Moscow on August 21?
9°C or below 91%
11°C 61%
10°C 58%
12°C 34%
NEW
NEW
Aug 21, 2026
9°C or below
91%
10°C
58%
11°C
61%
12°C
34%
13°C
34%
14°C
34%
15°C
34%
16°C
-
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C or higher
<1%
9°C or below 91%
11°C 61%
10°C 58%
12°C 34%
NEW
NEW
Aug 21, 2026
9°C or below
$87 Vol.
91%
10°C
$127 Vol.
58%
11°C
$92 Vol.
61%
12°C
$0 Vol.
34%
13°C
$0 Vol.
34%
14°C
$0 Vol.
34%
15°C
$16 Vol.
34%
16°C
$5,356 Vol.
-
17°C
$150 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$69 Vol.
<1%
19°C or higher
$69 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model guidance and observational trends point to radiative cooling under partly clear skies and a weakening high-pressure system as the main drivers positioning 9°C or below as the leading outcome for Moscow’s minimum temperature on August 21. Late-August climatology already favors progressively lower overnight lows as daylight shortens and soil moisture supports greater heat loss, with historical averages near 12–14°C giving way to cooler readings when northerly flow or calm conditions prevail. Trader consensus reflected in the 45.5% implied probability on sub-10°C outcomes aligns with this seasonal shift, while the clustered probabilities around 11–13°C acknowledge forecast uncertainty from evolving cloud cover and wind patterns. Updated ECMWF and GFS runs expected overnight will clarify whether a stronger cold advection episode materializes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 1:30 PM ET
Volume
$5,967End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 1:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model guidance and observational trends point to radiative cooling under partly clear skies and a weakening high-pressure system as the main drivers positioning 9°C or below as the leading outcome for Moscow’s minimum temperature on August 21. Late-August climatology already favors progressively lower overnight lows as daylight shortens and soil moisture supports greater heat loss, with historical averages near 12–14°C giving way to cooler readings when northerly flow or calm conditions prevail. Trader consensus reflected in the 45.5% implied probability on sub-10°C outcomes aligns with this seasonal shift, while the clustered probabilities around 11–13°C acknowledge forecast uncertainty from evolving cloud cover and wind patterns. Updated ECMWF and GFS runs expected overnight will clarify whether a stronger cold advection episode materializes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5,967End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 1:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model guidance and observational trends point to radiative cooling under partly clear skies and a weakening high-pressure system as the main drivers positioning 9°C or below as the leading outcome for Moscow’s minimum temperature on August 21. Late-August climatology already favors progressively lower overnight lows as daylight shortens and soil moisture supports greater heat loss, with historical averages near 12–14°C giving way to cooler readings when northerly flow or calm conditions prevail. Trader consensus reflected in the 45.5% implied probability on sub-10°C outcomes aligns with this seasonal shift, while the clustered probabilities around 11–13°C acknowledge forecast uncertainty from evolving cloud cover and wind patterns. Updated ECMWF and GFS runs expected overnight will clarify whether a stronger cold advection episode materializes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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