Recent numerical weather prediction runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Global Forecast System (GFS), and Roshydromet converge on overnight lows of 11–13 °C for Moscow on August 22 under a stable late-summer regime dominated by moderate Atlantic air masses and light winds. This consensus arises from minimal cloud cover allowing efficient radiative cooling after sunset, combined with dew-point values near 10 °C that limit further temperature drops. Ensemble spread in boundary-layer mixing and the precise timing of any weak frontal passage creates the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 11–13 °C, while historical August climatology (average minimum near 13 °C) anchors the lower tail outcomes below 10 °C at reduced odds. Updated model cycles tonight will refine the exact minimum before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Moscow on August 22?
Lowest temperature in Moscow on August 22?
16°C or higher 80%
6°C or below 49%
9°C 40%
14°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Aug 22, 2026
6°C or below
49%
7°C
25%
8°C
37%
9°C
40%
10°C
29%
11°C
41%
12°C
43%
13°C
42%
14°C
40%
15°C
2%
16°C or higher
80%
16°C or higher 80%
6°C or below 49%
9°C 40%
14°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Aug 22, 2026
6°C or below
$133 Vol.
49%
7°C
$70 Vol.
25%
8°C
$30 Vol.
37%
9°C
$22 Vol.
40%
10°C
$23 Vol.
29%
11°C
$23 Vol.
41%
12°C
$31 Vol.
43%
13°C
$22 Vol.
42%
14°C
$22 Vol.
40%
15°C
$77 Vol.
2%
16°C or higher
$99 Vol.
80%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Global Forecast System (GFS), and Roshydromet converge on overnight lows of 11–13 °C for Moscow on August 22 under a stable late-summer regime dominated by moderate Atlantic air masses and light winds. This consensus arises from minimal cloud cover allowing efficient radiative cooling after sunset, combined with dew-point values near 10 °C that limit further temperature drops. Ensemble spread in boundary-layer mixing and the precise timing of any weak frontal passage creates the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 11–13 °C, while historical August climatology (average minimum near 13 °C) anchors the lower tail outcomes below 10 °C at reduced odds. Updated model cycles tonight will refine the exact minimum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 1:33 PM ET
Volume
$550End Date
Aug 22, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 1:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Global Forecast System (GFS), and Roshydromet converge on overnight lows of 11–13 °C for Moscow on August 22 under a stable late-summer regime dominated by moderate Atlantic air masses and light winds. This consensus arises from minimal cloud cover allowing efficient radiative cooling after sunset, combined with dew-point values near 10 °C that limit further temperature drops. Ensemble spread in boundary-layer mixing and the precise timing of any weak frontal passage creates the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 11–13 °C, while historical August climatology (average minimum near 13 °C) anchors the lower tail outcomes below 10 °C at reduced odds. Updated model cycles tonight will refine the exact minimum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$550End Date
Aug 22, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 1:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent numerical weather prediction runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Global Forecast System (GFS), and Roshydromet converge on overnight lows of 11–13 °C for Moscow on August 22 under a stable late-summer regime dominated by moderate Atlantic air masses and light winds. This consensus arises from minimal cloud cover allowing efficient radiative cooling after sunset, combined with dew-point values near 10 °C that limit further temperature drops. Ensemble spread in boundary-layer mixing and the precise timing of any weak frontal passage creates the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 11–13 °C, while historical August climatology (average minimum near 13 °C) anchors the lower tail outcomes below 10 °C at reduced odds. Updated model cycles tonight will refine the exact minimum before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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