Current forecasts from multiple models place Munich's overnight minimum on September 12 around 8–12°C under mostly clear skies and light winds, consistent with the 10.5°C climatological average low. This setup favors moderate radiational cooling but keeps temperatures well above the 4°C threshold and below the 14°C mark that currently split market-implied odds near 50%. Key variables include the degree of cloud cover overnight and any late shifts in the 850 hPa airmass; clearer conditions could push readings toward the lower end of the range while increased moisture or wind would limit cooling. Updated ECMWF and GFS runs plus official DWD guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will refine the exact minimum and likely drive the next adjustments in trader positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Munich on September 12?
Lowest temperature in Munich on September 12?
14°C or higher 98%
6°C 39%
7°C 39%
8°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
4°C or below
20%
5°C
35%
6°C
39%
7°C
39%
8°C
39%
9°C
39%
10°C
39%
11°C
19%
12°C
19%
13°C
19%
14°C or higher
98%
14°C or higher 98%
6°C 39%
7°C 39%
8°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
4°C or below
$0 Vol.
20%
5°C
$0 Vol.
35%
6°C
$0 Vol.
39%
7°C
$0 Vol.
39%
8°C
$0 Vol.
39%
9°C
$0 Vol.
39%
10°C
$0 Vol.
39%
11°C
$0 Vol.
19%
12°C
$0 Vol.
19%
13°C
$0 Vol.
19%
14°C or higher
$0 Vol.
98%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from multiple models place Munich's overnight minimum on September 12 around 8–12°C under mostly clear skies and light winds, consistent with the 10.5°C climatological average low. This setup favors moderate radiational cooling but keeps temperatures well above the 4°C threshold and below the 14°C mark that currently split market-implied odds near 50%. Key variables include the degree of cloud cover overnight and any late shifts in the 850 hPa airmass; clearer conditions could push readings toward the lower end of the range while increased moisture or wind would limit cooling. Updated ECMWF and GFS runs plus official DWD guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will refine the exact minimum and likely drive the next adjustments in trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 10, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from multiple models place Munich's overnight minimum on September 12 around 8–12°C under mostly clear skies and light winds, consistent with the 10.5°C climatological average low. This setup favors moderate radiational cooling but keeps temperatures well above the 4°C threshold and below the 14°C mark that currently split market-implied odds near 50%. Key variables include the degree of cloud cover overnight and any late shifts in the 850 hPa airmass; clearer conditions could push readings toward the lower end of the range while increased moisture or wind would limit cooling. Updated ECMWF and GFS runs plus official DWD guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will refine the exact minimum and likely drive the next adjustments in trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from multiple models place Munich's overnight minimum on September 12 around 8–12°C under mostly clear skies and light winds, consistent with the 10.5°C climatological average low. This setup favors moderate radiational cooling but keeps temperatures well above the 4°C threshold and below the 14°C mark that currently split market-implied odds near 50%. Key variables include the degree of cloud cover overnight and any late shifts in the 850 hPa airmass; clearer conditions could push readings toward the lower end of the range while increased moisture or wind would limit cooling. Updated ECMWF and GFS runs plus official DWD guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will refine the exact minimum and likely drive the next adjustments in trader positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions