Recent forecasts from ECMWF, GFS, and Météo-France runs show an oceanic front crossing Paris on September 8, advecting cooler maritime air behind southwest-to-northwest winds and widespread cloud cover with light rain, which limits daytime heating and moderates overnight radiative cooling. Ensemble spreads place the minimum near 15–17 °C, aligning with market-implied odds favoring 16 °C (37 %) over 17 °C or 18 °C, while historical September 8 averages near 12 °C provide context for the mild anomaly. Traders weigh the precise timing of frontal passage and any model shifts in 850 hPa temperatures or boundary-layer mixing, with fresh 00Z and 12Z updates expected to tighten resolution criteria before market close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Paris on September 8?
Lowest temperature in Paris on September 8?
16°C 37%
14°C 34%
17°C 29%
18°C 24%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
11°C or below
1%
12°C
4%
13°C
20%
14°C
34%
15°C
21%
16°C
37%
17°C
29%
18°C
24%
19°C
4%
20°C
1%
21°C or higher
1%
16°C 37%
14°C 34%
17°C 29%
18°C 24%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
11°C or below
$0 Vol.
1%
12°C
$0 Vol.
4%
13°C
$0 Vol.
20%
14°C
$0 Vol.
34%
15°C
$0 Vol.
21%
16°C
$118 Vol.
37%
17°C
$0 Vol.
29%
18°C
$0 Vol.
24%
19°C
$0 Vol.
4%
20°C
$0 Vol.
1%
21°C or higher
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from ECMWF, GFS, and Météo-France runs show an oceanic front crossing Paris on September 8, advecting cooler maritime air behind southwest-to-northwest winds and widespread cloud cover with light rain, which limits daytime heating and moderates overnight radiative cooling. Ensemble spreads place the minimum near 15–17 °C, aligning with market-implied odds favoring 16 °C (37 %) over 17 °C or 18 °C, while historical September 8 averages near 12 °C provide context for the mild anomaly. Traders weigh the precise timing of frontal passage and any model shifts in 850 hPa temperatures or boundary-layer mixing, with fresh 00Z and 12Z updates expected to tighten resolution criteria before market close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 6, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$118End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from ECMWF, GFS, and Météo-France runs show an oceanic front crossing Paris on September 8, advecting cooler maritime air behind southwest-to-northwest winds and widespread cloud cover with light rain, which limits daytime heating and moderates overnight radiative cooling. Ensemble spreads place the minimum near 15–17 °C, aligning with market-implied odds favoring 16 °C (37 %) over 17 °C or 18 °C, while historical September 8 averages near 12 °C provide context for the mild anomaly. Traders weigh the precise timing of frontal passage and any model shifts in 850 hPa temperatures or boundary-layer mixing, with fresh 00Z and 12Z updates expected to tighten resolution criteria before market close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$118End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from ECMWF, GFS, and Météo-France runs show an oceanic front crossing Paris on September 8, advecting cooler maritime air behind southwest-to-northwest winds and widespread cloud cover with light rain, which limits daytime heating and moderates overnight radiative cooling. Ensemble spreads place the minimum near 15–17 °C, aligning with market-implied odds favoring 16 °C (37 %) over 17 °C or 18 °C, while historical September 8 averages near 12 °C provide context for the mild anomaly. Traders weigh the precise timing of frontal passage and any model shifts in 850 hPa temperatures or boundary-layer mixing, with fresh 00Z and 12Z updates expected to tighten resolution criteria before market close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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