Current forecasts from meteorological agencies place Shanghai's minimum temperature on August 13 near 25–26°C, aligning with the market's heavy weighting toward 26°C. Seasonal summer humidity and expected light rain or cloud cover limit overnight radiative cooling, keeping lows above the long-term August average of roughly 25°C. Recent model runs show consistent steering patterns with minimal cold-air advection, though small shifts in timing or precipitation intensity could nudge the outcome toward 25°C. Traders appear to price in this consensus from official guidance, with lower probabilities assigned to extremes reflecting the narrow uncertainty range typical for near-term temperature resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shanghai on August 13?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on August 13?
26°C 57%
25°C 15%
27°C 12%
24°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 13, 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
8%
25°C
15%
26°C
57%
27°C
12%
28°C
2%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
26°C 57%
25°C 15%
27°C 12%
24°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 13, 2026
21°C or below
$381 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$413 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$318 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$562 Vol.
8%
25°C
$566 Vol.
15%
26°C
$2,651 Vol.
57%
27°C
$1,676 Vol.
12%
28°C
$888 Vol.
2%
29°C
$292 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$445 Vol.
<1%
31°C or higher
$672 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from meteorological agencies place Shanghai's minimum temperature on August 13 near 25–26°C, aligning with the market's heavy weighting toward 26°C. Seasonal summer humidity and expected light rain or cloud cover limit overnight radiative cooling, keeping lows above the long-term August average of roughly 25°C. Recent model runs show consistent steering patterns with minimal cold-air advection, though small shifts in timing or precipitation intensity could nudge the outcome toward 25°C. Traders appear to price in this consensus from official guidance, with lower probabilities assigned to extremes reflecting the narrow uncertainty range typical for near-term temperature resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$8,864End Date
Aug 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from meteorological agencies place Shanghai's minimum temperature on August 13 near 25–26°C, aligning with the market's heavy weighting toward 26°C. Seasonal summer humidity and expected light rain or cloud cover limit overnight radiative cooling, keeping lows above the long-term August average of roughly 25°C. Recent model runs show consistent steering patterns with minimal cold-air advection, though small shifts in timing or precipitation intensity could nudge the outcome toward 25°C. Traders appear to price in this consensus from official guidance, with lower probabilities assigned to extremes reflecting the narrow uncertainty range typical for near-term temperature resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$8,864End Date
Aug 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from meteorological agencies place Shanghai's minimum temperature on August 13 near 25–26°C, aligning with the market's heavy weighting toward 26°C. Seasonal summer humidity and expected light rain or cloud cover limit overnight radiative cooling, keeping lows above the long-term August average of roughly 25°C. Recent model runs show consistent steering patterns with minimal cold-air advection, though small shifts in timing or precipitation intensity could nudge the outcome toward 25°C. Traders appear to price in this consensus from official guidance, with lower probabilities assigned to extremes reflecting the narrow uncertainty range typical for near-term temperature resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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