Latest model consensus from the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles points to a minimum temperature near 26°C in Shenzhen on September 8, driven by clearing skies after recent light rain and building high pressure that favors moderate radiative cooling overnight. Trader consensus reflects this with the 26°C outcome at 34.5% implied probability, narrowly ahead of 25°C and 27°C, as small differences in cloud cover, northeast wind advection, or urban heat retention could shift the exact low by 1–2°C. Historical September baselines for the region show typical overnight minima of 24–27°C under similar post-monsoon patterns. Updated short-range forecasts and ensemble spreads expected in the next 24–48 hours will further refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shenzhen on September 8?
Lowest temperature in Shenzhen on September 8?
23°C 49%
24°C 49%
28°C 49%
29°C 49%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
22°C or below
35%
23°C
49%
24°C
49%
25°C
26%
26°C
31%
27°C
27%
28°C
49%
29°C
49%
30°C
19%
31°C
1%
32°C or higher
30%
23°C 49%
24°C 49%
28°C 49%
29°C 49%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
22°C or below
$0 Vol.
35%
23°C
$0 Vol.
49%
24°C
$0 Vol.
49%
25°C
$0 Vol.
26%
26°C
$0 Vol.
31%
27°C
$0 Vol.
27%
28°C
$0 Vol.
49%
29°C
$0 Vol.
49%
30°C
$0 Vol.
19%
31°C
$0 Vol.
1%
32°C or higher
$0 Vol.
30%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest model consensus from the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles points to a minimum temperature near 26°C in Shenzhen on September 8, driven by clearing skies after recent light rain and building high pressure that favors moderate radiative cooling overnight. Trader consensus reflects this with the 26°C outcome at 34.5% implied probability, narrowly ahead of 25°C and 27°C, as small differences in cloud cover, northeast wind advection, or urban heat retention could shift the exact low by 1–2°C. Historical September baselines for the region show typical overnight minima of 24–27°C under similar post-monsoon patterns. Updated short-range forecasts and ensemble spreads expected in the next 24–48 hours will further refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 6, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest model consensus from the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles points to a minimum temperature near 26°C in Shenzhen on September 8, driven by clearing skies after recent light rain and building high pressure that favors moderate radiative cooling overnight. Trader consensus reflects this with the 26°C outcome at 34.5% implied probability, narrowly ahead of 25°C and 27°C, as small differences in cloud cover, northeast wind advection, or urban heat retention could shift the exact low by 1–2°C. Historical September baselines for the region show typical overnight minima of 24–27°C under similar post-monsoon patterns. Updated short-range forecasts and ensemble spreads expected in the next 24–48 hours will further refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest model consensus from the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles points to a minimum temperature near 26°C in Shenzhen on September 8, driven by clearing skies after recent light rain and building high pressure that favors moderate radiative cooling overnight. Trader consensus reflects this with the 26°C outcome at 34.5% implied probability, narrowly ahead of 25°C and 27°C, as small differences in cloud cover, northeast wind advection, or urban heat retention could shift the exact low by 1–2°C. Historical September baselines for the region show typical overnight minima of 24–27°C under similar post-monsoon patterns. Updated short-range forecasts and ensemble spreads expected in the next 24–48 hours will further refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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