Recent forecasts from multiple models for Wellington on September 6 indicate a highest temperature near 14–15°C, aligning with the market's strong preference for 15°C at 55% implied probability. Springtime conditions in the Southern Hemisphere, combined with moderate northwesterly flows and a passing front bringing cloud cover and light rain, are limiting daytime heating and keeping maxima close to the September climatological average of about 14°C. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread, with most runs clustering in the 14–16°C range and minimal potential for stronger subsidence or clearer skies that could push readings to 17°C or higher. Updated model runs and official MetService briefings over the next 48 hours represent the key catalysts that could refine these market-implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on September 6?
Highest temperature in Wellington on September 6?
15°C 57%
16°C 29%
14°C 9%
17°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
9°C or below
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
1%
12°C
1%
13°C
1%
14°C
9%
15°C
57%
16°C
29%
17°C
4%
18°C
2%
19°C or higher
1%
15°C 57%
16°C 29%
14°C 9%
17°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
9°C or below
$69 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$35 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$133 Vol.
1%
12°C
$95 Vol.
1%
13°C
$171 Vol.
1%
14°C
$2,030 Vol.
9%
15°C
$845 Vol.
57%
16°C
$550 Vol.
29%
17°C
$161 Vol.
4%
18°C
$27 Vol.
2%
19°C or higher
$90 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models for Wellington on September 6 indicate a highest temperature near 14–15°C, aligning with the market's strong preference for 15°C at 55% implied probability. Springtime conditions in the Southern Hemisphere, combined with moderate northwesterly flows and a passing front bringing cloud cover and light rain, are limiting daytime heating and keeping maxima close to the September climatological average of about 14°C. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread, with most runs clustering in the 14–16°C range and minimal potential for stronger subsidence or clearer skies that could push readings to 17°C or higher. Updated model runs and official MetService briefings over the next 48 hours represent the key catalysts that could refine these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$4,206End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models for Wellington on September 6 indicate a highest temperature near 14–15°C, aligning with the market's strong preference for 15°C at 55% implied probability. Springtime conditions in the Southern Hemisphere, combined with moderate northwesterly flows and a passing front bringing cloud cover and light rain, are limiting daytime heating and keeping maxima close to the September climatological average of about 14°C. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread, with most runs clustering in the 14–16°C range and minimal potential for stronger subsidence or clearer skies that could push readings to 17°C or higher. Updated model runs and official MetService briefings over the next 48 hours represent the key catalysts that could refine these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,206End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple models for Wellington on September 6 indicate a highest temperature near 14–15°C, aligning with the market's strong preference for 15°C at 55% implied probability. Springtime conditions in the Southern Hemisphere, combined with moderate northwesterly flows and a passing front bringing cloud cover and light rain, are limiting daytime heating and keeping maxima close to the September climatological average of about 14°C. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread, with most runs clustering in the 14–16°C range and minimal potential for stronger subsidence or clearer skies that could push readings to 17°C or higher. Updated model runs and official MetService briefings over the next 48 hours represent the key catalysts that could refine these market-implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions