Recent northerly wind shifts and persistent cloud cover with light rain have driven Tokyo's minimum temperatures into the 19–21°C range over the past several days, aligning with Japan Meteorological Agency observations and multi-model consensus for September 12. This pattern reflects seasonal transition influences, including residual summer moisture and variable steering flows, rather than extreme cold-air outbreaks or heat domes. Short-range forecasts show limited model spread, with overnight radiative cooling tempered by humidity and cloud cover, making sub-17°C readings or minima above 25°C statistically unlikely without rapid synoptic changes. Traders appear to weigh residual forecast uncertainty and historical September variability against these stable signals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on September 12?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on September 12?
26°C or higher 64%
21°C 40%
20°C 39%
19°C 34%
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
16°C or below
2%
17°C
18%
18°C
20%
19°C
34%
20°C
39%
21°C
40%
22°C
19%
23°C
18%
24°C
18%
25°C
18%
26°C or higher
64%
26°C or higher 64%
21°C 40%
20°C 39%
19°C 34%
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
16°C or below
$0 Vol.
2%
17°C
$0 Vol.
18%
18°C
$0 Vol.
20%
19°C
$0 Vol.
34%
20°C
$125 Vol.
39%
21°C
$0 Vol.
40%
22°C
$0 Vol.
19%
23°C
$0 Vol.
18%
24°C
$0 Vol.
18%
25°C
$0 Vol.
18%
26°C or higher
$0 Vol.
64%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent northerly wind shifts and persistent cloud cover with light rain have driven Tokyo's minimum temperatures into the 19–21°C range over the past several days, aligning with Japan Meteorological Agency observations and multi-model consensus for September 12. This pattern reflects seasonal transition influences, including residual summer moisture and variable steering flows, rather than extreme cold-air outbreaks or heat domes. Short-range forecasts show limited model spread, with overnight radiative cooling tempered by humidity and cloud cover, making sub-17°C readings or minima above 25°C statistically unlikely without rapid synoptic changes. Traders appear to weigh residual forecast uncertainty and historical September variability against these stable signals.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 10, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$125End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent northerly wind shifts and persistent cloud cover with light rain have driven Tokyo's minimum temperatures into the 19–21°C range over the past several days, aligning with Japan Meteorological Agency observations and multi-model consensus for September 12. This pattern reflects seasonal transition influences, including residual summer moisture and variable steering flows, rather than extreme cold-air outbreaks or heat domes. Short-range forecasts show limited model spread, with overnight radiative cooling tempered by humidity and cloud cover, making sub-17°C readings or minima above 25°C statistically unlikely without rapid synoptic changes. Traders appear to weigh residual forecast uncertainty and historical September variability against these stable signals.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$125End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent northerly wind shifts and persistent cloud cover with light rain have driven Tokyo's minimum temperatures into the 19–21°C range over the past several days, aligning with Japan Meteorological Agency observations and multi-model consensus for September 12. This pattern reflects seasonal transition influences, including residual summer moisture and variable steering flows, rather than extreme cold-air outbreaks or heat domes. Short-range forecasts show limited model spread, with overnight radiative cooling tempered by humidity and cloud cover, making sub-17°C readings or minima above 25°C statistically unlikely without rapid synoptic changes. Traders appear to weigh residual forecast uncertainty and historical September variability against these stable signals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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