**Forecasts for Wellington on September 11, 2026, point to a minimum temperature near 6–8 °C under variable spring conditions, yet market-implied odds remain closely split between sub-3 °C and 12 °C+ outcomes.** Current model guidance and observational trends favor overnight lows in the 6–8 °C range, consistent with September climatology (typical minima 7–9 °C). Southerly winds and lingering cloud from the preceding frontal passage are expected to limit radiative cooling, while any shift to clearer skies or a stronger southerly surge could drop readings toward 4–5 °C. Conversely, a quicker transition to northwesterlies would support milder minima near 9–11 °C. Traders appear to weigh these boundary scenarios heavily because small changes in wind direction, cloud cover, or timing of clearing can shift the overnight minimum by several degrees in Wellington’s exposed, maritime setting. Official MetService and global model consensus currently cluster around the middle of the distribution, but the 40 % odds on each tail reflect the genuine short-term uncertainty in the final 24-hour evolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Wellington on September 11?
Lowest temperature in Wellington on September 11?
2°C or below 81%
12°C or higher 81%
4°C 40%
9°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
2°C or below
81%
3°C
14%
4°C
40%
5°C
22%
6°C
24%
7°C
22%
8°C
23%
9°C
40%
10°C
8%
11°C
8%
12°C or higher
81%
2°C or below 81%
12°C or higher 81%
4°C 40%
9°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
2°C or below
$0 Vol.
81%
3°C
$0 Vol.
14%
4°C
$0 Vol.
40%
5°C
$0 Vol.
22%
6°C
$0 Vol.
24%
7°C
$0 Vol.
22%
8°C
$38 Vol.
23%
9°C
$34 Vol.
40%
10°C
$0 Vol.
8%
11°C
$0 Vol.
8%
12°C or higher
$0 Vol.
81%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecasts for Wellington on September 11, 2026, point to a minimum temperature near 6–8 °C under variable spring conditions, yet market-implied odds remain closely split between sub-3 °C and 12 °C+ outcomes.**
Current model guidance and observational trends favor overnight lows in the 6–8 °C range, consistent with September climatology (typical minima 7–9 °C). Southerly winds and lingering cloud from the preceding frontal passage are expected to limit radiative cooling, while any shift to clearer skies or a stronger southerly surge could drop readings toward 4–5 °C. Conversely, a quicker transition to northwesterlies would support milder minima near 9–11 °C.
Traders appear to weigh these boundary scenarios heavily because small changes in wind direction, cloud cover, or timing of clearing can shift the overnight minimum by several degrees in Wellington’s exposed, maritime setting. Official MetService and global model consensus currently cluster around the middle of the distribution, but the 40 % odds on each tail reflect the genuine short-term uncertainty in the final 24-hour evolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 9, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$71End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecasts for Wellington on September 11, 2026, point to a minimum temperature near 6–8 °C under variable spring conditions, yet market-implied odds remain closely split between sub-3 °C and 12 °C+ outcomes.**
Current model guidance and observational trends favor overnight lows in the 6–8 °C range, consistent with September climatology (typical minima 7–9 °C). Southerly winds and lingering cloud from the preceding frontal passage are expected to limit radiative cooling, while any shift to clearer skies or a stronger southerly surge could drop readings toward 4–5 °C. Conversely, a quicker transition to northwesterlies would support milder minima near 9–11 °C.
Traders appear to weigh these boundary scenarios heavily because small changes in wind direction, cloud cover, or timing of clearing can shift the overnight minimum by several degrees in Wellington’s exposed, maritime setting. Official MetService and global model consensus currently cluster around the middle of the distribution, but the 40 % odds on each tail reflect the genuine short-term uncertainty in the final 24-hour evolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$71End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecasts for Wellington on September 11, 2026, point to a minimum temperature near 6–8 °C under variable spring conditions, yet market-implied odds remain closely split between sub-3 °C and 12 °C+ outcomes.** Current model guidance and observational trends favor overnight lows in the 6–8 °C range, consistent with September climatology (typical minima 7–9 °C). Southerly winds and lingering cloud from the preceding frontal passage are expected to limit radiative cooling, while any shift to clearer skies or a stronger southerly surge could drop readings toward 4–5 °C. Conversely, a quicker transition to northwesterlies would support milder minima near 9–11 °C. Traders appear to weigh these boundary scenarios heavily because small changes in wind direction, cloud cover, or timing of clearing can shift the overnight minimum by several degrees in Wellington’s exposed, maritime setting. Official MetService and global model consensus currently cluster around the middle of the distribution, but the 40 % odds on each tail reflect the genuine short-term uncertainty in the final 24-hour evolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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