Recent ensemble forecasts from agencies including MetService and global models like ECMWF and GFS show a building high-pressure ridge over the Tasman Sea driving northerly winds into Wellington on September 25, suppressing strong radiative cooling and favoring overnight minima near 8–9°C. Light to moderate northerlies, combined with partial cloud cover, limit the potential for sub-7°C readings while also capping any surge above 13°C under stable spring conditions. This setup aligns closely with September climatology, where typical minima hover around 9–10°C, creating genuine uncertainty in the precise daily low that explains the near-even market split between sub-5°C and 14°C+ outcomes versus clustered mid-range probabilities. Updated model runs and surface observations through the 24th will refine wind and cloud timing ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Wellington on September 25?
Lowest temperature in Wellington on September 25?
14°C or higher 98%
4°C or below 50%
7°C 40%
8°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 25, 2026
4°C or below
50%
5°C
39%
6°C
39%
7°C
40%
8°C
40%
9°C
39%
10°C
39%
11°C
39%
12°C
39%
13°C
39%
14°C or higher
98%
14°C or higher 98%
4°C or below 50%
7°C 40%
8°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 25, 2026
4°C or below
$0 Vol.
50%
5°C
$0 Vol.
39%
6°C
$0 Vol.
39%
7°C
$0 Vol.
40%
8°C
$0 Vol.
40%
9°C
$0 Vol.
39%
10°C
$0 Vol.
39%
11°C
$0 Vol.
39%
12°C
$0 Vol.
39%
13°C
$0 Vol.
39%
14°C or higher
$0 Vol.
98%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from agencies including MetService and global models like ECMWF and GFS show a building high-pressure ridge over the Tasman Sea driving northerly winds into Wellington on September 25, suppressing strong radiative cooling and favoring overnight minima near 8–9°C. Light to moderate northerlies, combined with partial cloud cover, limit the potential for sub-7°C readings while also capping any surge above 13°C under stable spring conditions. This setup aligns closely with September climatology, where typical minima hover around 9–10°C, creating genuine uncertainty in the precise daily low that explains the near-even market split between sub-5°C and 14°C+ outcomes versus clustered mid-range probabilities. Updated model runs and surface observations through the 24th will refine wind and cloud timing ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 23, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 25, 2026Market Opened
Sep 23, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from agencies including MetService and global models like ECMWF and GFS show a building high-pressure ridge over the Tasman Sea driving northerly winds into Wellington on September 25, suppressing strong radiative cooling and favoring overnight minima near 8–9°C. Light to moderate northerlies, combined with partial cloud cover, limit the potential for sub-7°C readings while also capping any surge above 13°C under stable spring conditions. This setup aligns closely with September climatology, where typical minima hover around 9–10°C, creating genuine uncertainty in the precise daily low that explains the near-even market split between sub-5°C and 14°C+ outcomes versus clustered mid-range probabilities. Updated model runs and surface observations through the 24th will refine wind and cloud timing ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 25, 2026Market Opened
Sep 23, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from agencies including MetService and global models like ECMWF and GFS show a building high-pressure ridge over the Tasman Sea driving northerly winds into Wellington on September 25, suppressing strong radiative cooling and favoring overnight minima near 8–9°C. Light to moderate northerlies, combined with partial cloud cover, limit the potential for sub-7°C readings while also capping any surge above 13°C under stable spring conditions. This setup aligns closely with September climatology, where typical minima hover around 9–10°C, creating genuine uncertainty in the precise daily low that explains the near-even market split between sub-5°C and 14°C+ outcomes versus clustered mid-range probabilities. Updated model runs and surface observations through the 24th will refine wind and cloud timing ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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