**Southerly winds ahead of and behind a front are advecting cooler maritime air into Wellington, driving the market-implied odds toward a minimum near 7–8 °C on September 23.** Official MetService guidance and multiple numerical models (including ICON and GFS-derived outputs) show a daytime high around 10 °C with morning and early-afternoon showers, followed by clearing and a strengthening southerly flow that will limit overnight radiational cooling. This setup favors minimum temperatures of 5–6 °C in many runs, though stronger winds or earlier clearance could keep readings closer to 7–8 °C; conversely, lighter winds and clearer skies after showers would allow further cooling toward 4–6 °C. Historical September minima average near 9–10 °C, so the current pattern represents a notable cold anomaly tied to the frontal passage. Resolution hinges on the precise timing of wind shifts and cloud dissipation overnight into the early morning of the 23rd, with the next MetService update and real-time observations likely to narrow the tight clustering of probabilities around 6–9 °C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Wellington on September 23?
Lowest temperature in Wellington on September 23?
6°C 93%
3°C or below 71%
8°C 48%
9°C 47%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
3°C or below
71%
4°C
14%
5°C
39%
6°C
93%
7°C
48%
8°C
48%
9°C
47%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C or higher
<1%
6°C 93%
3°C or below 71%
8°C 48%
9°C 47%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
3°C or below
$100 Vol.
71%
4°C
$40 Vol.
14%
5°C
$8 Vol.
39%
6°C
$0 Vol.
93%
7°C
$3 Vol.
48%
8°C
$0 Vol.
48%
9°C
$6 Vol.
47%
10°C
$194 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$100 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$115 Vol.
<1%
13°C or higher
$15 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Southerly winds ahead of and behind a front are advecting cooler maritime air into Wellington, driving the market-implied odds toward a minimum near 7–8 °C on September 23.** Official MetService guidance and multiple numerical models (including ICON and GFS-derived outputs) show a daytime high around 10 °C with morning and early-afternoon showers, followed by clearing and a strengthening southerly flow that will limit overnight radiational cooling. This setup favors minimum temperatures of 5–6 °C in many runs, though stronger winds or earlier clearance could keep readings closer to 7–8 °C; conversely, lighter winds and clearer skies after showers would allow further cooling toward 4–6 °C. Historical September minima average near 9–10 °C, so the current pattern represents a notable cold anomaly tied to the frontal passage. Resolution hinges on the precise timing of wind shifts and cloud dissipation overnight into the early morning of the 23rd, with the next MetService update and real-time observations likely to narrow the tight clustering of probabilities around 6–9 °C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 21, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$581End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Southerly winds ahead of and behind a front are advecting cooler maritime air into Wellington, driving the market-implied odds toward a minimum near 7–8 °C on September 23.** Official MetService guidance and multiple numerical models (including ICON and GFS-derived outputs) show a daytime high around 10 °C with morning and early-afternoon showers, followed by clearing and a strengthening southerly flow that will limit overnight radiational cooling. This setup favors minimum temperatures of 5–6 °C in many runs, though stronger winds or earlier clearance could keep readings closer to 7–8 °C; conversely, lighter winds and clearer skies after showers would allow further cooling toward 4–6 °C. Historical September minima average near 9–10 °C, so the current pattern represents a notable cold anomaly tied to the frontal passage. Resolution hinges on the precise timing of wind shifts and cloud dissipation overnight into the early morning of the 23rd, with the next MetService update and real-time observations likely to narrow the tight clustering of probabilities around 6–9 °C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$581End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Southerly winds ahead of and behind a front are advecting cooler maritime air into Wellington, driving the market-implied odds toward a minimum near 7–8 °C on September 23.** Official MetService guidance and multiple numerical models (including ICON and GFS-derived outputs) show a daytime high around 10 °C with morning and early-afternoon showers, followed by clearing and a strengthening southerly flow that will limit overnight radiational cooling. This setup favors minimum temperatures of 5–6 °C in many runs, though stronger winds or earlier clearance could keep readings closer to 7–8 °C; conversely, lighter winds and clearer skies after showers would allow further cooling toward 4–6 °C. Historical September minima average near 9–10 °C, so the current pattern represents a notable cold anomaly tied to the frontal passage. Resolution hinges on the precise timing of wind shifts and cloud dissipation overnight into the early morning of the 23rd, with the next MetService update and real-time observations likely to narrow the tight clustering of probabilities around 6–9 °C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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