**Recent weather patterns and forecast models position warmer overnight lows as the dominant driver of trader sentiment for Zhengzhou’s minimum temperature on August 24.** Persistent summer heat and humidity across Henan province, with no strong cold-air advection or frontal passages expected, support minimums in the mid-20s °C range. Official and ensemble guidance from sources tracking the region show overnight lows holding near 24–27 °C, consistent with late-August climatology where daily minima typically bottom out around 25 °C before any seasonal decline. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, while possible, are unlikely to produce meaningful cooling given light winds and high dew points that limit radiational cooling overnight. Market-implied odds reflect this consensus: the 49.5 % probability on 25 °C or higher captures the central tendency of current model runs, while lower buckets (15 °C or below at 30 %) remain discounted absent any anomalous synoptic shift. Traders appear to weigh the stability of these conditions through the 24-hour window, with resolution hinging on the official daily minimum recorded by local meteorological stations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Zhengzhou on August 24?
Lowest temperature in Zhengzhou on August 24?
15°C or below 60%
21°C 52%
22°C 52%
23°C 52%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
15°C or below
60%
16°C
47%
17°C
47%
18°C
47%
19°C
1%
20°C
47%
21°C
52%
22°C
52%
23°C
52%
24°C
28%
25°C or higher
50%
15°C or below 60%
21°C 52%
22°C 52%
23°C 52%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
15°C or below
$10 Vol.
60%
16°C
$10 Vol.
47%
17°C
$10 Vol.
47%
18°C
$10 Vol.
47%
19°C
$43 Vol.
1%
20°C
$10 Vol.
47%
21°C
$10 Vol.
52%
22°C
$10 Vol.
52%
23°C
$10 Vol.
52%
24°C
$0 Vol.
28%
25°C or higher
$0 Vol.
50%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Zhengzhou Xinzheng International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhcc
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent weather patterns and forecast models position warmer overnight lows as the dominant driver of trader sentiment for Zhengzhou’s minimum temperature on August 24.** Persistent summer heat and humidity across Henan province, with no strong cold-air advection or frontal passages expected, support minimums in the mid-20s °C range. Official and ensemble guidance from sources tracking the region show overnight lows holding near 24–27 °C, consistent with late-August climatology where daily minima typically bottom out around 25 °C before any seasonal decline.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms, while possible, are unlikely to produce meaningful cooling given light winds and high dew points that limit radiational cooling overnight. Market-implied odds reflect this consensus: the 49.5 % probability on 25 °C or higher captures the central tendency of current model runs, while lower buckets (15 °C or below at 30 %) remain discounted absent any anomalous synoptic shift. Traders appear to weigh the stability of these conditions through the 24-hour window, with resolution hinging on the official daily minimum recorded by local meteorological stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Zhengzhou Xinzheng International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhcc
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhcc
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
Volume
$123End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhccResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Zhengzhou Xinzheng International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhcc
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent weather patterns and forecast models position warmer overnight lows as the dominant driver of trader sentiment for Zhengzhou’s minimum temperature on August 24.** Persistent summer heat and humidity across Henan province, with no strong cold-air advection or frontal passages expected, support minimums in the mid-20s °C range. Official and ensemble guidance from sources tracking the region show overnight lows holding near 24–27 °C, consistent with late-August climatology where daily minima typically bottom out around 25 °C before any seasonal decline.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms, while possible, are unlikely to produce meaningful cooling given light winds and high dew points that limit radiational cooling overnight. Market-implied odds reflect this consensus: the 49.5 % probability on 25 °C or higher captures the central tendency of current model runs, while lower buckets (15 °C or below at 30 %) remain discounted absent any anomalous synoptic shift. Traders appear to weigh the stability of these conditions through the 24-hour window, with resolution hinging on the official daily minimum recorded by local meteorological stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Zhengzhou Xinzheng International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhcc
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhcc
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$123End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhccResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent weather patterns and forecast models position warmer overnight lows as the dominant driver of trader sentiment for Zhengzhou’s minimum temperature on August 24.** Persistent summer heat and humidity across Henan province, with no strong cold-air advection or frontal passages expected, support minimums in the mid-20s °C range. Official and ensemble guidance from sources tracking the region show overnight lows holding near 24–27 °C, consistent with late-August climatology where daily minima typically bottom out around 25 °C before any seasonal decline. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, while possible, are unlikely to produce meaningful cooling given light winds and high dew points that limit radiational cooling overnight. Market-implied odds reflect this consensus: the 49.5 % probability on 25 °C or higher captures the central tendency of current model runs, while lower buckets (15 °C or below at 30 %) remain discounted absent any anomalous synoptic shift. Traders appear to weigh the stability of these conditions through the 24-hour window, with resolution hinging on the official daily minimum recorded by local meteorological stations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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