Mojtaba Khamenei has issued statements and directives as Supreme Leader since his March 2026 appointment by the Assembly of Experts but has produced no independently verified public appearance in the intervening months. Officials including President Pezeshkian and Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf have described recent private meetings and asserted his good health, while state media released undated short video clips in August showing him in controlled settings; none of these have been corroborated by independent observers. The low trader-implied probability of an appearance stems primarily from persistent security concerns following the February 2026 strike that killed his father and others, which reportedly injured Mojtaba and heightened assassination risks amid ongoing conflict with the United States and Israel. Written messages and courier-delivered orders have substituted for visible events, consistent with patterns of limited public exposure by the officeholder. No scheduled public ceremonies or diplomatic summits in the near term are expected to alter this approach.