Ongoing Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian territory have repeatedly triggered simultaneous flight suspensions at Moscow’s three main airports—Sheremetyevo (SVO), Domodedovo (DME), and Vnukovo (VKO)—as Rosaviatsia imposes temporary restrictions to enable air-defense operations and ensure safety. Multiple incidents occurred in May and June 2026, including large-scale barrages that closed all relevant hubs for several hours, with additional measures in July lowering maximum altitudes and banning transit flights over the region until at least late August. These patterns reflect sustained conflict dynamics and defense protocols rather than isolated weather or technical events. The market’s implied probability reflects trader assessment of continued strike frequency within the resolution window through August 31, 2026, with any major de-escalation or shift in Ukrainian capabilities potentially altering outcomes before expiry.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMoscow air traffic suspended by...?
Moscow air traffic suspended by...?
$48,074 Vol.
Jul 22, 2026
July 22
No
July 25
No
July 31
No
August 31
Yes
$48,074 Vol.
July 22
$1,065 Vol.
No
July 25
$1,682 Vol.
No
July 31
$2,110 Vol.
No
August 31
$43,217 Vol.
Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russian government or aviation authorities suspend departures and arrivals at all three of the following Moscow airports at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
The relevant airports are:
- Sheremetyevo (SVO);
- Domodedovo (DME); and
- Vnukovo (VKO).
A qualifying suspension refers to official flight restrictions suspending both departures and arrivals at all three airports for any amount of time. Such suspensions may be issued as one singular order or separate notices, provided suspensions of arrivals and departures are concurrently in effect at all three airports between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Suspensions described as "temporary restrictions on arrivals and departures" at the relevant airports by Russian authorities will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official communications from the Russian government and Russian aviation authorities, including the Rosaviatsiya federal air transport agency; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian territory have repeatedly triggered simultaneous flight suspensions at Moscow’s three main airports—Sheremetyevo (SVO), Domodedovo (DME), and Vnukovo (VKO)—as Rosaviatsia imposes temporary restrictions to enable air-defense operations and ensure safety. Multiple incidents occurred in May and June 2026, including large-scale barrages that closed all relevant hubs for several hours, with additional measures in July lowering maximum altitudes and banning transit flights over the region until at least late August. These patterns reflect sustained conflict dynamics and defense protocols rather than isolated weather or technical events. The market’s implied probability reflects trader assessment of continued strike frequency within the resolution window through August 31, 2026, with any major de-escalation or shift in Ukrainian capabilities potentially altering outcomes before expiry.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russian government or aviation authorities suspend departures and arrivals at all three of the following Moscow airports at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
The relevant airports are:
- Sheremetyevo (SVO);
- Domodedovo (DME); and
- Vnukovo (VKO).
A qualifying suspension refers to official flight restrictions suspending both departures and arrivals at all three airports for any amount of time. Such suspensions may be issued as one singular order or separate notices, provided suspensions of arrivals and departures are concurrently in effect at all three airports between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Suspensions described as "temporary restrictions on arrivals and departures" at the relevant airports by Russian authorities will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official communications from the Russian government and Russian aviation authorities, including the Rosaviatsiya federal air transport agency; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The relevant airports are:
- Sheremetyevo (SVO);
- Domodedovo (DME); and
- Vnukovo (VKO).
A qualifying suspension refers to official flight restrictions suspending both departures and arrivals at all three airports for any amount of time. Such suspensions may be issued as one singular order or separate notices, provided suspensions of arrivals and departures are concurrently in effect at all three airports between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Suspensions described as "temporary restrictions on arrivals and departures" at the relevant airports by Russian authorities will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official communications from the Russian government and Russian aviation authorities, including the Rosaviatsiya federal air transport agency; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 4:46 PM ET
Volume
$48,074End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 4:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russian government or aviation authorities suspend departures and arrivals at all three of the following Moscow airports at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
The relevant airports are:
- Sheremetyevo (SVO);
- Domodedovo (DME); and
- Vnukovo (VKO).
A qualifying suspension refers to official flight restrictions suspending both departures and arrivals at all three airports for any amount of time. Such suspensions may be issued as one singular order or separate notices, provided suspensions of arrivals and departures are concurrently in effect at all three airports between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Suspensions described as "temporary restrictions on arrivals and departures" at the relevant airports by Russian authorities will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official communications from the Russian government and Russian aviation authorities, including the Rosaviatsiya federal air transport agency; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian territory have repeatedly triggered simultaneous flight suspensions at Moscow’s three main airports—Sheremetyevo (SVO), Domodedovo (DME), and Vnukovo (VKO)—as Rosaviatsia imposes temporary restrictions to enable air-defense operations and ensure safety. Multiple incidents occurred in May and June 2026, including large-scale barrages that closed all relevant hubs for several hours, with additional measures in July lowering maximum altitudes and banning transit flights over the region until at least late August. These patterns reflect sustained conflict dynamics and defense protocols rather than isolated weather or technical events. The market’s implied probability reflects trader assessment of continued strike frequency within the resolution window through August 31, 2026, with any major de-escalation or shift in Ukrainian capabilities potentially altering outcomes before expiry.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russian government or aviation authorities suspend departures and arrivals at all three of the following Moscow airports at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
The relevant airports are:
- Sheremetyevo (SVO);
- Domodedovo (DME); and
- Vnukovo (VKO).
A qualifying suspension refers to official flight restrictions suspending both departures and arrivals at all three airports for any amount of time. Such suspensions may be issued as one singular order or separate notices, provided suspensions of arrivals and departures are concurrently in effect at all three airports between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Suspensions described as "temporary restrictions on arrivals and departures" at the relevant airports by Russian authorities will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official communications from the Russian government and Russian aviation authorities, including the Rosaviatsiya federal air transport agency; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The relevant airports are:
- Sheremetyevo (SVO);
- Domodedovo (DME); and
- Vnukovo (VKO).
A qualifying suspension refers to official flight restrictions suspending both departures and arrivals at all three airports for any amount of time. Such suspensions may be issued as one singular order or separate notices, provided suspensions of arrivals and departures are concurrently in effect at all three airports between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Suspensions described as "temporary restrictions on arrivals and departures" at the relevant airports by Russian authorities will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official communications from the Russian government and Russian aviation authorities, including the Rosaviatsiya federal air transport agency; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$48,074End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 4:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Ongoing Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian territory have repeatedly triggered simultaneous flight suspensions at Moscow’s three main airports—Sheremetyevo (SVO), Domodedovo (DME), and Vnukovo (VKO)—as Rosaviatsia imposes temporary restrictions to enable air-defense operations and ensure safety. Multiple incidents occurred in May and June 2026, including large-scale barrages that closed all relevant hubs for several hours, with additional measures in July lowering maximum altitudes and banning transit flights over the region until at least late August. These patterns reflect sustained conflict dynamics and defense protocols rather than isolated weather or technical events. The market’s implied probability reflects trader assessment of continued strike frequency within the resolution window through August 31, 2026, with any major de-escalation or shift in Ukrainian capabilities potentially altering outcomes before expiry.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions