Recent U.S. economic data and consensus forecasts underpin the 96% market-implied probability against negative 2026 GDP growth. Official projections from the Congressional Budget Office, IMF, and private forecasters such as JPMorgan and Deloitte anticipate real GDP expansion of 1.5–2.3% for the year, driven by resilient consumer spending, robust business investment in AI-related capital expenditures, and the lagged effects of prior fiscal measures. Second-quarter 2026 GDP rose at a 1.5% annualized rate, consistent with ongoing expansion despite moderating labor market conditions and tariff headwinds. While downside risks from escalated trade tensions, sharper immigration reductions, or unexpected financial shocks could still trigger contraction, current indicators and baseline outlooks leave little room for a full-year decline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNegative GDP growth in 2026?
Negative GDP growth in 2026?
4% chance
$32,234 Vol.
$32,234 Vol.
Jan 29, 2027
4% chance
$32,234 Vol.
$32,234 Vol.
Jan 29, 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Recent U.S. economic data and consensus forecasts underpin the 96% market-implied probability against negative 2026 GDP growth. Official projections from the Congressional Budget Office, IMF, and private forecasters such as JPMorgan and Deloitte anticipate real GDP expansion of 1.5–2.3% for the year, driven by resilient consumer spending, robust business investment in AI-related capital expenditures, and the lagged effects of prior fiscal measures. Second-quarter 2026 GDP rose at a 1.5% annualized rate, consistent with ongoing expansion despite moderating labor market conditions and tariff headwinds. While downside risks from escalated trade tensions, sharper immigration reductions, or unexpected financial shocks could still trigger contraction, current indicators and baseline outlooks leave little room for a full-year decline.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Market Opened: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
Volume
$32,234End Date
Jan 29, 2027Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Recent U.S. economic data and consensus forecasts underpin the 96% market-implied probability against negative 2026 GDP growth. Official projections from the Congressional Budget Office, IMF, and private forecasters such as JPMorgan and Deloitte anticipate real GDP expansion of 1.5–2.3% for the year, driven by resilient consumer spending, robust business investment in AI-related capital expenditures, and the lagged effects of prior fiscal measures. Second-quarter 2026 GDP rose at a 1.5% annualized rate, consistent with ongoing expansion despite moderating labor market conditions and tariff headwinds. While downside risks from escalated trade tensions, sharper immigration reductions, or unexpected financial shocks could still trigger contraction, current indicators and baseline outlooks leave little room for a full-year decline.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Volume
$32,234End Date
Jan 29, 2027Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. economic data and consensus forecasts underpin the 96% market-implied probability against negative 2026 GDP growth. Official projections from the Congressional Budget Office, IMF, and private forecasters such as JPMorgan and Deloitte anticipate real GDP expansion of 1.5–2.3% for the year, driven by resilient consumer spending, robust business investment in AI-related capital expenditures, and the lagged effects of prior fiscal measures. Second-quarter 2026 GDP rose at a 1.5% annualized rate, consistent with ongoing expansion despite moderating labor market conditions and tariff headwinds. While downside risks from escalated trade tensions, sharper immigration reductions, or unexpected financial shocks could still trigger contraction, current indicators and baseline outlooks leave little room for a full-year decline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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