Robust consensus among Federal Reserve, private forecasters, and institutional models underpins the 98% market-implied probability against negative 2026 GDP growth. The FOMC’s September 2026 median projection stands at 2.3% real GDP growth on a Q4/Q4 basis, with private estimates clustered between 2.0% and 2.3%, supported by resilient consumer spending, strong AI-driven business investment, and a stable labor market where unemployment has held near 4.1–4.3%. Year-to-date quarterly expansions, including 2.1% in Q1 and 1.5% in Q2, remain positive and consistent with trend growth near potential. While tail risks such as escalation in geopolitical tensions, an abrupt AI investment pullback, or sharper monetary tightening amid sticky inflation could still produce a contractionary quarter, current data and forward-looking indicators show no material pathway to a full-year decline.