**Abundant egg supplies following the 2025 HPAI recovery continue to anchor trader expectations for August retail prices near recent levels.** Producer flock rebuilding has lifted output and inventories, pushing wholesale prices to multi-year lows around $0.62 per dozen as of mid-August 2026, while retail averages settled near $2.14 in June. This oversupply dynamic, compounded by softer consumer demand and elevated feed costs, explains the tight clustering of implied probabilities between the $2.10–$2.20 and $2.30–$2.40 ranges. Market-implied odds reflect skin-in-the-game consensus on these supply-demand fundamentals, tempered by risks of renewed avian influenza outbreaks or seasonal demand shifts that could alter the path before month-end resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$2.10–$2.20 29.3%
$2.30–$2.40 28%
$2.20–$2.30 19.5%
$2.40–$2.50 9%
<$1.80
1%
$1.80–$1.90
1%
$1.90–$2.00
5%
$2.00–$2.10
4%
$2.10–$2.20
35%
$2.20–$2.30
20%
$2.30–$2.40
28%
$2.40–$2.50
16%
$2.50–$2.60
4%
≥$2.60
1%
$2.10–$2.20 29.3%
$2.30–$2.40 28%
$2.20–$2.30 19.5%
$2.40–$2.50 9%
<$1.80
1%
$1.80–$1.90
1%
$1.90–$2.00
5%
$2.00–$2.10
4%
$2.10–$2.20
35%
$2.20–$2.30
20%
$2.30–$2.40
28%
$2.40–$2.50
16%
$2.50–$2.60
4%
≥$2.60
1%
The St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for egg prices on the BLS's CPI release. The August release is presently scheduled for September 11, 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon the update of the St. Louis Fed's chart. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The resolution source for this market measures prices to the third decimal place. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 10:17 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for egg prices on the BLS's CPI release. The August release is presently scheduled for September 11, 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon the update of the St. Louis Fed's chart. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The resolution source for this market measures prices to the third decimal place. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...**Abundant egg supplies following the 2025 HPAI recovery continue to anchor trader expectations for August retail prices near recent levels.** Producer flock rebuilding has lifted output and inventories, pushing wholesale prices to multi-year lows around $0.62 per dozen as of mid-August 2026, while retail averages settled near $2.14 in June. This oversupply dynamic, compounded by softer consumer demand and elevated feed costs, explains the tight clustering of implied probabilities between the $2.10–$2.20 and $2.30–$2.40 ranges. Market-implied odds reflect skin-in-the-game consensus on these supply-demand fundamentals, tempered by risks of renewed avian influenza outbreaks or seasonal demand shifts that could alter the path before month-end resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated


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