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Politics·United States

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

icon for Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Politics·United States

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

J.D. Vance 51.2%

Marco Rubio 15.8%

Tucker Carlson 3.4%

Ron DeSantis 2.8%

Polymarket

$706,825,047 Vol.

J.D. Vance 51.2%

Marco Rubio 15.8%

Tucker Carlson 3.4%

Ron DeSantis 2.8%

Polymarket

$706,825,047 Vol.

icon for J.D. Vance

J.D. Vance

$15,679,893 Vol.

51%

icon for Marco Rubio

Marco Rubio

$10,672,143 Vol.

16%

icon for Tucker Carlson

Tucker Carlson

$13,802,935 Vol.

3%

icon for Ron DeSantis

Ron DeSantis

$15,547,725 Vol.

3%

icon for Donald Trump

Donald Trump

$9,576,351 Vol.

2%

icon for Ted Cruz

Ted Cruz

$19,454,353 Vol.

2%

icon for Donald Trump Jr.

Donald Trump Jr.

$9,668,829 Vol.

2%

icon for Ivanka Trump

Ivanka Trump

$8,568,877 Vol.

1%

icon for Thomas Massie

Thomas Massie

$6,114,991 Vol.

1%

icon for Glenn Youngkin

Glenn Youngkin

$8,719,089 Vol.

<1%

icon for Pete Hegseth

Pete Hegseth

$9,361,434 Vol.

<1%

icon for Tulsi Gabbard

Tulsi Gabbard

$14,075,831 Vol.

<1%

icon for Brian Kemp

Brian Kemp

$17,937,049 Vol.

<1%

icon for Marjorie Taylor Greene

Marjorie Taylor Greene

$6,765,864 Vol.

<1%

icon for Josh Hawley

Josh Hawley

$20,409,393 Vol.

<1%

icon for Vivek Ramaswamy

Vivek Ramaswamy

$16,110,605 Vol.

<1%

icon for Greg Abbott

Greg Abbott

$21,380,553 Vol.

<1%

icon for Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

$16,845,209 Vol.

<1%

icon for Candace Owens

Candace Owens

$871,821 Vol.

<1%

icon for Tom Brady

Tom Brady

$32,968,887 Vol.

<1%

icon for Rand Paul

Rand Paul

$19,550,489 Vol.

<1%

icon for Nikki Haley

Nikki Haley

$10,386,591 Vol.

<1%

icon for Byron Donalds

Byron Donalds

$44,422,500 Vol.

<1%

icon for Elise Stefanik

Elise Stefanik

$27,991,264 Vol.

<1%

icon for Elon Musk

Elon Musk

$31,382,145 Vol.

<1%

icon for Katie Britt

Katie Britt

$28,966,095 Vol.

<1%

icon for Kristi Noem

Kristi Noem

$37,656,603 Vol.

<1%

icon for Mike Pence

Mike Pence

$43,711,704 Vol.

<1%

icon for Steve Bannon

Steve Bannon

$22,966,643 Vol.

<1%

icon for Kim Kardashian

Kim Kardashian

$28,566,011 Vol.

<1%

icon for Eric Trump

Eric Trump

$10,576,535 Vol.

<1%

icon for Joe Kent

Joe Kent

$8,932,208 Vol.

<1%

icon for Tom Cotton

Tom Cotton

$1,591,944 Vol.

<1%

icon for John N. Kennedy

John N. Kennedy

$436,699 Vol.

<1%

icon for Sarah Huckabee Sanders

Sarah Huckabee Sanders

$34,621,421 Vol.

<1%

icon for Matt Gaetz

Matt Gaetz

$20,410,118 Vol.

<1%

icon for John Thune

John Thune

$38,185,915 Vol.

<1%

icon for Erika Kirk

Erika Kirk

$19,033,545 Vol.

<1%

icon for Tim Scott

Tim Scott

$531,420 Vol.

<1%

icon for Mike Johnson

Mike Johnson

$872,175 Vol.

<1%

icon for Doug Burgum

Doug Burgum

$739,544 Vol.

<1%

icon for Rick Scott

Rick Scott

$761,644 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.The 2028 Republican presidential nomination remains tightly contested, with J.D. Vance and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. holding nearly identical implied probabilities near 50 percent each in current trader consensus. This balance stems from ongoing uncertainty over post-2024 party dynamics, including potential realignments among key voting blocs, the impact of 2026 midterm outcomes on congressional influence, and the role of endorsements or primary performances in early states. Developments such as shifts in polling averages, legislative votes on major policy priorities like immigration or the economy, or high-profile candidate announcements could create separation. Historical patterns indicate that early leads often narrow when challengers build momentum through debates or grassroots efforts ahead of the primaries.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$706,825,047
End Date
Nov 8, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 3:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.The 2028 Republican presidential nomination remains tightly contested, with J.D. Vance and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. holding nearly identical implied probabilities near 50 percent each in current trader consensus. This balance stems from ongoing uncertainty over post-2024 party dynamics, including potential realignments among key voting blocs, the impact of 2026 midterm outcomes on congressional influence, and the role of endorsements or primary performances in early states. Developments such as shifts in polling averages, legislative votes on major policy priorities like immigration or the economy, or high-profile candidate announcements could create separation. Historical patterns indicate that early leads often narrow when challengers build momentum through debates or grassroots efforts ahead of the primaries.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$706,825,047
End Date
Nov 8, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 3:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 42+ possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "J.D. Vance" at 51%, followed by "Marco Rubio" at 16%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 51¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 51% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" has generated $706.8 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028," browse the 42+ available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is "J.D. Vance" at 51%, meaning the market assigns a 51% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Marco Rubio" at 16%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.