The tight race between Vice President J.D. Vance and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination stems from competing views on party succession after Donald Trump's presidency. Vance draws support from his administration role and alignment with core voter coalitions, while Kennedy maintains near-parity through his cabinet influence and health policy emphasis. Marco Rubio sits third at roughly 16 percent implied probability, with no other candidate exceeding 4 percent. This narrow split shows traders see an unsettled field where early positioning, polling trends in key states, and potential endorsements could widen gaps before the primaries begin in earnest.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
J.D. Vance 51.2%
Marco Rubio 15.8%
Tucker Carlson 3.4%
Ron DeSantis 2.8%
$706,814,361 Vol.
$706,814,361 Vol.
Nov 6, 2028
Earn 3.25%
J.D. Vance
51%
Marco Rubio
16%
Tucker Carlson
3%
Ron DeSantis
3%
Donald Trump
2%
Ted Cruz
2%
Donald Trump Jr.
2%
Ivanka Trump
1%
Thomas Massie
1%
Glenn Youngkin
<1%
Pete Hegseth
<1%
Tulsi Gabbard
<1%
Brian Kemp
<1%
Marjorie Taylor Greene
<1%
Josh Hawley
<1%
Vivek Ramaswamy
<1%
Greg Abbott
<1%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
<1%
Candace Owens
<1%
Tom Brady
<1%
Rand Paul
<1%
Nikki Haley
<1%
Byron Donalds
<1%
Elise Stefanik
<1%
Elon Musk
<1%
Katie Britt
<1%
Kristi Noem
<1%
Mike Pence
<1%
Steve Bannon
<1%
Kim Kardashian
<1%
Eric Trump
<1%
Joe Kent
<1%
Tom Cotton
<1%
John N. Kennedy
<1%
Sarah Huckabee Sanders
<1%
Matt Gaetz
<1%
John Thune
<1%
Erika Kirk
<1%
Tim Scott
<1%
Mike Johnson
<1%
Doug Burgum
<1%
Rick Scott
<1%
J.D. Vance 51.2%
Marco Rubio 15.8%
Tucker Carlson 3.4%
Ron DeSantis 2.8%
$706,814,361 Vol.
$706,814,361 Vol.
Nov 6, 2028
Earn 3.25%
J.D. Vance
$15,679,831 Vol.
51%
Marco Rubio
$10,672,105 Vol.
16%
Tucker Carlson
$13,802,749 Vol.
3%
Ron DeSantis
$15,547,424 Vol.
3%
Donald Trump
$9,575,307 Vol.
2%
Ted Cruz
$19,454,080 Vol.
2%
Donald Trump Jr.
$9,668,532 Vol.
2%
Ivanka Trump
$8,568,877 Vol.
1%
Thomas Massie
$6,113,655 Vol.
1%
Glenn Youngkin
$8,719,084 Vol.
<1%
Pete Hegseth
$9,361,434 Vol.
<1%
Tulsi Gabbard
$14,075,831 Vol.
<1%
Brian Kemp
$17,937,047 Vol.
<1%
Marjorie Taylor Greene
$6,765,864 Vol.
<1%
Josh Hawley
$20,409,393 Vol.
<1%
Vivek Ramaswamy
$16,110,590 Vol.
<1%
Greg Abbott
$21,380,553 Vol.
<1%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$16,838,937 Vol.
<1%
Candace Owens
$871,821 Vol.
<1%
Tom Brady
$32,968,887 Vol.
<1%
Rand Paul
$19,550,485 Vol.
<1%
Nikki Haley
$10,386,580 Vol.
<1%
Byron Donalds
$44,422,491 Vol.
<1%
Elise Stefanik
$27,991,264 Vol.
<1%
Elon Musk
$31,382,145 Vol.
<1%
Katie Britt
$28,966,089 Vol.
<1%
Kristi Noem
$37,656,401 Vol.
<1%
Mike Pence
$43,711,698 Vol.
<1%
Steve Bannon
$22,966,538 Vol.
<1%
Kim Kardashian
$28,565,605 Vol.
<1%
Eric Trump
$10,576,435 Vol.
<1%
Joe Kent
$8,932,206 Vol.
<1%
Tom Cotton
$1,591,944 Vol.
<1%
John N. Kennedy
$436,699 Vol.
<1%
Sarah Huckabee Sanders
$34,621,421 Vol.
<1%
Matt Gaetz
$20,410,118 Vol.
<1%
John Thune
$38,185,915 Vol.
<1%
Erika Kirk
$19,033,545 Vol.
<1%
Tim Scott
$531,420 Vol.
<1%
Mike Johnson
$872,175 Vol.
<1%
Doug Burgum
$739,544 Vol.
<1%
Rick Scott
$761,644 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.
Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.The tight race between Vice President J.D. Vance and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination stems from competing views on party succession after Donald Trump's presidency. Vance draws support from his administration role and alignment with core voter coalitions, while Kennedy maintains near-parity through his cabinet influence and health policy emphasis. Marco Rubio sits third at roughly 16 percent implied probability, with no other candidate exceeding 4 percent. This narrow split shows traders see an unsettled field where early positioning, polling trends in key states, and potential endorsements could widen gaps before the primaries begin in earnest.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.
Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.
Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Market Opened: Jul 11, 2025, 3:21 PM ET
Volume
$706,814,361End Date
Nov 7, 2028Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 3:21 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.
Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.The tight race between Vice President J.D. Vance and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination stems from competing views on party succession after Donald Trump's presidency. Vance draws support from his administration role and alignment with core voter coalitions, while Kennedy maintains near-parity through his cabinet influence and health policy emphasis. Marco Rubio sits third at roughly 16 percent implied probability, with no other candidate exceeding 4 percent. This narrow split shows traders see an unsettled field where early positioning, polling trends in key states, and potential endorsements could widen gaps before the primaries begin in earnest.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.
Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.
Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$706,814,361End Date
Nov 7, 2028Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 3:21 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The tight race between Vice President J.D. Vance and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination stems from competing views on party succession after Donald Trump's presidency. Vance draws support from his administration role and alignment with core voter coalitions, while Kennedy maintains near-parity through his cabinet influence and health policy emphasis. Marco Rubio sits third at roughly 16 percent implied probability, with no other candidate exceeding 4 percent. This narrow split shows traders see an unsettled field where early positioning, polling trends in key states, and potential endorsements could widen gaps before the primaries begin in earnest.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions