OpenAI leads with an 84.5% implied probability for second-best AI agent lab by end of August, reflecting its demonstrated progress in agentic workflows, tool use, and large language model integrations that traders view as setting the pace for autonomous systems. This positioning stems from consistent benchmark gains and ecosystem momentum relative to peers. Lower odds for Anthropic (6%), Mistral (5.9%), and others highlight their competitive capabilities in specialized agents but narrower reach, while ByteDance and Xiaomi sit at 10% and 7% on regional strengths. With resolution near, any late-August model updates or capability demos from major labs remain key swing factors in trader assessments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOpenAI 85%
ByteDance 6%
Moonshot 6%
Z.ai 3.5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
OpenAI
85%
ByteDance
6%
Moonshot
6%
Z.ai
4%
Xiaomi
3%
Anthropic
3%
SpaceXAI
3%
Mistral
3%
Alibaba
3%
Nvidia
1%
Baidu
1%
Microsoft
1%
DeepSeek
1%
<1%
Meta
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Amazon
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
OpenAI 85%
ByteDance 6%
Moonshot 6%
Z.ai 3.5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
OpenAI
$1,154 Vol.
85%
ByteDance
$281 Vol.
6%
Moonshot
$132 Vol.
6%
Z.ai
$116 Vol.
4%
Xiaomi
$136 Vol.
3%
Anthropic
$179 Vol.
3%
SpaceXAI
$116 Vol.
3%
Mistral
$142 Vol.
3%
Alibaba
$125 Vol.
3%
Nvidia
$131 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$209 Vol.
1%
Microsoft
$200 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$121 Vol.
1%
$81 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$102 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$75 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$89 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$131 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".OpenAI leads with an 84.5% implied probability for second-best AI agent lab by end of August, reflecting its demonstrated progress in agentic workflows, tool use, and large language model integrations that traders view as setting the pace for autonomous systems. This positioning stems from consistent benchmark gains and ecosystem momentum relative to peers. Lower odds for Anthropic (6%), Mistral (5.9%), and others highlight their competitive capabilities in specialized agents but narrower reach, while ByteDance and Xiaomi sit at 10% and 7% on regional strengths. With resolution near, any late-August model updates or capability demos from major labs remain key swing factors in trader assessments.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 7:39 PM ET
Volume
$3,520End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:39 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agentResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".OpenAI leads with an 84.5% implied probability for second-best AI agent lab by end of August, reflecting its demonstrated progress in agentic workflows, tool use, and large language model integrations that traders view as setting the pace for autonomous systems. This positioning stems from consistent benchmark gains and ecosystem momentum relative to peers. Lower odds for Anthropic (6%), Mistral (5.9%), and others highlight their competitive capabilities in specialized agents but narrower reach, while ByteDance and Xiaomi sit at 10% and 7% on regional strengths. With resolution near, any late-August model updates or capability demos from major labs remain key swing factors in trader assessments.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$3,520End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:39 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agentResolver
0x69c47De9D...OpenAI leads with an 84.5% implied probability for second-best AI agent lab by end of August, reflecting its demonstrated progress in agentic workflows, tool use, and large language model integrations that traders view as setting the pace for autonomous systems. This positioning stems from consistent benchmark gains and ecosystem momentum relative to peers. Lower odds for Anthropic (6%), Mistral (5.9%), and others highlight their competitive capabilities in specialized agents but narrower reach, while ByteDance and Xiaomi sit at 10% and 7% on regional strengths. With resolution near, any late-August model updates or capability demos from major labs remain key swing factors in trader assessments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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