Ralph Norman holds a commanding lead in trader consensus for second place in South Carolina’s August 11 Republican special Senate primary due to his strong performance among a crowded field of ten candidates vying to replace the late Sen. Lindsey Graham. Partial and projected results place Norman behind only appointed Sen. Darline Graham, with other contenders including Rep. Russell Fry and former Gov. Mark Sanford trailing further back in a contest that advanced the top two finishers to an August 25 runoff. Norman’s established congressional profile, emphasis on fiscal conservatism, and name recognition helped consolidate support in a fragmented primary where no candidate secured a majority. With vote counts largely finalized, shifts would require an unusually large-scale recount or tabulation reversal to alter the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRalph Norman 99.6%
Russell Fry <1%
Darline Graham Nordone <1%
Duke Buckner <1%
$92,193 Vol.
$92,193 Vol.
Aug 11, 2026
Ralph Norman
100%
Russell Fry
1%
Darline Graham Nordone
<1%
Duke Buckner
<1%
Mark Lynch
<1%
Mark Sanford
<1%
Sheri Biggs
<1%
Pamela Evette
<1%
Trey Gowdy
<1%
Henry McMaster
<1%
Ralph Norman 99.6%
Russell Fry <1%
Darline Graham Nordone <1%
Duke Buckner <1%
$92,193 Vol.
$92,193 Vol.
Aug 11, 2026
Ralph Norman
$53,442 Vol.
100%
Russell Fry
$14,837 Vol.
1%
Darline Graham Nordone
$11,902 Vol.
<1%
Duke Buckner
$1,067 Vol.
<1%
Mark Lynch
$5,228 Vol.
<1%
Mark Sanford
$2,690 Vol.
<1%
Sheri Biggs
$830 Vol.
<1%
Pamela Evette
$701 Vol.
<1%
Trey Gowdy
$713 Vol.
<1%
Henry McMaster
$784 Vol.
<1%
The first round of the 2026 special Republican Party primary for the United States Senate election in South Carolina will be held on August 11, 2026, with a potential runoff on August 25, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the second-most votes in the first round of the special Republican Primary for US Senator from South Carolina.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' first names, as listed in this market group. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of South Carolina, such as official statewide results published by the South Carolina Election Commission (https://scvotes.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Ralph Norman holds a commanding lead in trader consensus for second place in South Carolina’s August 11 Republican special Senate primary due to his strong performance among a crowded field of ten candidates vying to replace the late Sen. Lindsey Graham. Partial and projected results place Norman behind only appointed Sen. Darline Graham, with other contenders including Rep. Russell Fry and former Gov. Mark Sanford trailing further back in a contest that advanced the top two finishers to an August 25 runoff. Norman’s established congressional profile, emphasis on fiscal conservatism, and name recognition helped consolidate support in a fragmented primary where no candidate secured a majority. With vote counts largely finalized, shifts would require an unusually large-scale recount or tabulation reversal to alter the outcome.
The first round of the 2026 special Republican Party primary for the United States Senate election in South Carolina will be held on August 11, 2026, with a potential runoff on August 25, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the second-most votes in the first round of the special Republican Primary for US Senator from South Carolina.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' first names, as listed in this market group. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of South Carolina, such as official statewide results published by the South Carolina Election Commission (https://scvotes.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the second-most votes in the first round of the special Republican Primary for US Senator from South Carolina.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' first names, as listed in this market group. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of South Carolina, such as official statewide results published by the South Carolina Election Commission (https://scvotes.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Market Opened: Jul 30, 2026, 3:53 PM ET
Volume
$92,193End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 3:53 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The first round of the 2026 special Republican Party primary for the United States Senate election in South Carolina will be held on August 11, 2026, with a potential runoff on August 25, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the second-most votes in the first round of the special Republican Primary for US Senator from South Carolina.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' first names, as listed in this market group. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of South Carolina, such as official statewide results published by the South Carolina Election Commission (https://scvotes.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Ralph Norman holds a commanding lead in trader consensus for second place in South Carolina’s August 11 Republican special Senate primary due to his strong performance among a crowded field of ten candidates vying to replace the late Sen. Lindsey Graham. Partial and projected results place Norman behind only appointed Sen. Darline Graham, with other contenders including Rep. Russell Fry and former Gov. Mark Sanford trailing further back in a contest that advanced the top two finishers to an August 25 runoff. Norman’s established congressional profile, emphasis on fiscal conservatism, and name recognition helped consolidate support in a fragmented primary where no candidate secured a majority. With vote counts largely finalized, shifts would require an unusually large-scale recount or tabulation reversal to alter the outcome.
The first round of the 2026 special Republican Party primary for the United States Senate election in South Carolina will be held on August 11, 2026, with a potential runoff on August 25, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the second-most votes in the first round of the special Republican Primary for US Senator from South Carolina.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' first names, as listed in this market group. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of South Carolina, such as official statewide results published by the South Carolina Election Commission (https://scvotes.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the second-most votes in the first round of the special Republican Primary for US Senator from South Carolina.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' first names, as listed in this market group. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of South Carolina, such as official statewide results published by the South Carolina Election Commission (https://scvotes.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$92,193End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 3:53 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ralph Norman holds a commanding lead in trader consensus for second place in South Carolina’s August 11 Republican special Senate primary due to his strong performance among a crowded field of ten candidates vying to replace the late Sen. Lindsey Graham. Partial and projected results place Norman behind only appointed Sen. Darline Graham, with other contenders including Rep. Russell Fry and former Gov. Mark Sanford trailing further back in a contest that advanced the top two finishers to an August 25 runoff. Norman’s established congressional profile, emphasis on fiscal conservatism, and name recognition helped consolidate support in a fragmented primary where no candidate secured a majority. With vote counts largely finalized, shifts would require an unusually large-scale recount or tabulation reversal to alter the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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