Ralph Norman holds a commanding lead for second place in South Carolina's August 11 special Republican primary for the U.S. Senate seat because his profile as a sitting U.S. Representative, House Freedom Caucus member, and recent third-place finisher in the state's gubernatorial primary gives him superior name recognition and organizational strength across key counties in his congressional district. A crowded field of ten candidates, including Russell Fry, Mark Sanford, and others without comparable recent statewide exposure, has split the remaining vote and limited challengers' ability to consolidate support before polls closed. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing anticipates that outstanding ballots from Norman's stronger areas will preserve his position ahead of the August 25 runoff. Shifts remain possible if final counts from Fry's coastal strongholds or late-reporting precincts alter the order, though such reversals appear unlikely given the reported margins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRalph Norman 99.6%
Darline Graham Nordone <1%
Russell Fry <1%
Duke Buckner <1%
$91,672 Vol.
$91,672 Vol.
Aug 11, 2026
Ralph Norman
100%
Darline Graham Nordone
1%
Russell Fry
<1%
Duke Buckner
<1%
Mark Lynch
<1%
Mark Sanford
<1%
Sheri Biggs
<1%
Pamela Evette
<1%
Trey Gowdy
<1%
Henry McMaster
<1%
Ralph Norman 99.6%
Darline Graham Nordone <1%
Russell Fry <1%
Duke Buckner <1%
$91,672 Vol.
$91,672 Vol.
Aug 11, 2026
Ralph Norman
$53,091 Vol.
100%
Darline Graham Nordone
$11,902 Vol.
1%
Russell Fry
$14,687 Vol.
<1%
Duke Buckner
$1,067 Vol.
<1%
Mark Lynch
$5,208 Vol.
<1%
Mark Sanford
$2,690 Vol.
<1%
Sheri Biggs
$830 Vol.
<1%
Pamela Evette
$701 Vol.
<1%
Trey Gowdy
$713 Vol.
<1%
Henry McMaster
$784 Vol.
<1%
The first round of the 2026 special Republican Party primary for the United States Senate election in South Carolina will be held on August 11, 2026, with a potential runoff on August 25, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the second-most votes in the first round of the special Republican Primary for US Senator from South Carolina.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' first names, as listed in this market group. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of South Carolina, such as official statewide results published by the South Carolina Election Commission (https://scvotes.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Ralph Norman holds a commanding lead for second place in South Carolina's August 11 special Republican primary for the U.S. Senate seat because his profile as a sitting U.S. Representative, House Freedom Caucus member, and recent third-place finisher in the state's gubernatorial primary gives him superior name recognition and organizational strength across key counties in his congressional district. A crowded field of ten candidates, including Russell Fry, Mark Sanford, and others without comparable recent statewide exposure, has split the remaining vote and limited challengers' ability to consolidate support before polls closed. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing anticipates that outstanding ballots from Norman's stronger areas will preserve his position ahead of the August 25 runoff. Shifts remain possible if final counts from Fry's coastal strongholds or late-reporting precincts alter the order, though such reversals appear unlikely given the reported margins.
The first round of the 2026 special Republican Party primary for the United States Senate election in South Carolina will be held on August 11, 2026, with a potential runoff on August 25, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the second-most votes in the first round of the special Republican Primary for US Senator from South Carolina.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' first names, as listed in this market group. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of South Carolina, such as official statewide results published by the South Carolina Election Commission (https://scvotes.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the second-most votes in the first round of the special Republican Primary for US Senator from South Carolina.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' first names, as listed in this market group. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of South Carolina, such as official statewide results published by the South Carolina Election Commission (https://scvotes.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Market Opened: Jul 30, 2026, 3:53 PM ET
Volume
$91,672End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 3:53 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The first round of the 2026 special Republican Party primary for the United States Senate election in South Carolina will be held on August 11, 2026, with a potential runoff on August 25, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the second-most votes in the first round of the special Republican Primary for US Senator from South Carolina.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' first names, as listed in this market group. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of South Carolina, such as official statewide results published by the South Carolina Election Commission (https://scvotes.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Ralph Norman holds a commanding lead for second place in South Carolina's August 11 special Republican primary for the U.S. Senate seat because his profile as a sitting U.S. Representative, House Freedom Caucus member, and recent third-place finisher in the state's gubernatorial primary gives him superior name recognition and organizational strength across key counties in his congressional district. A crowded field of ten candidates, including Russell Fry, Mark Sanford, and others without comparable recent statewide exposure, has split the remaining vote and limited challengers' ability to consolidate support before polls closed. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing anticipates that outstanding ballots from Norman's stronger areas will preserve his position ahead of the August 25 runoff. Shifts remain possible if final counts from Fry's coastal strongholds or late-reporting precincts alter the order, though such reversals appear unlikely given the reported margins.
The first round of the 2026 special Republican Party primary for the United States Senate election in South Carolina will be held on August 11, 2026, with a potential runoff on August 25, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the second-most votes in the first round of the special Republican Primary for US Senator from South Carolina.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' first names, as listed in this market group. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of South Carolina, such as official statewide results published by the South Carolina Election Commission (https://scvotes.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the second-most votes in the first round of the special Republican Primary for US Senator from South Carolina.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' first names, as listed in this market group. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of South Carolina, such as official statewide results published by the South Carolina Election Commission (https://scvotes.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$91,672End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 3:53 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ralph Norman holds a commanding lead for second place in South Carolina's August 11 special Republican primary for the U.S. Senate seat because his profile as a sitting U.S. Representative, House Freedom Caucus member, and recent third-place finisher in the state's gubernatorial primary gives him superior name recognition and organizational strength across key counties in his congressional district. A crowded field of ten candidates, including Russell Fry, Mark Sanford, and others without comparable recent statewide exposure, has split the remaining vote and limited challengers' ability to consolidate support before polls closed. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing anticipates that outstanding ballots from Norman's stronger areas will preserve his position ahead of the August 25 runoff. Shifts remain possible if final counts from Fry's coastal strongholds or late-reporting precincts alter the order, though such reversals appear unlikely given the reported margins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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