Strong semiconductor exports, highlighted by April’s 48% year-over-year trade surge and the Bank of Korea’s 3.6% Q1 2026 YoY GDP print—the fastest pace in five years—have anchored market-implied odds for South Korea’s Q2 2026 growth near 3.5–4.4%, with those ranges commanding the highest combined probability. Upward revisions by institutions such as JP Morgan to 3.0% and the Korea Development Institute to 2.5% for full-year 2026 reflect AI-driven chip demand and 5.1% export growth, yet soft April employment gains of just 74,000 and 2.6% inflation point to fragile domestic consumption that sustains notable probabilities in the 1.5–2.9% bands. The closely matched leading outcomes underscore uncertainty over whether export momentum will sustain mid-3% or push into mid-4% territory, with May trade data and global tech orders serving as key near-term catalysts ahead of the July 28 advance release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSouth Korea GDP growth (YoY) in Q2 2026?
South Korea GDP growth (YoY) in Q2 2026?
3.0–3.4% 43%
2.5–2.9% 36.3%
2.0–2.4% 21%
<1.5% 19.1%
NEW
NEW
Jul 23, 2026
<1.5%
19%
1.5–1.9%
23%
2.0–2.4%
21%
2.5–2.9%
36%
3.0–3.4%
24%
3.5–3.9%
57%
4.0–4.4%
51%
4.5%+
25%
3.0–3.4% 43%
2.5–2.9% 36.3%
2.0–2.4% 21%
<1.5% 19.1%
NEW
NEW
Jul 23, 2026
<1.5%
$278 Vol.
19%
1.5–1.9%
$184 Vol.
23%
2.0–2.4%
$351 Vol.
21%
2.5–2.9%
$161 Vol.
36%
3.0–3.4%
$154 Vol.
24%
3.5–3.9%
$319 Vol.
57%
4.0–4.4%
$276 Vol.
51%
4.5%+
$238 Vol.
25%
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the second quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on July 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01Strong semiconductor exports, highlighted by April’s 48% year-over-year trade surge and the Bank of Korea’s 3.6% Q1 2026 YoY GDP print—the fastest pace in five years—have anchored market-implied odds for South Korea’s Q2 2026 growth near 3.5–4.4%, with those ranges commanding the highest combined probability. Upward revisions by institutions such as JP Morgan to 3.0% and the Korea Development Institute to 2.5% for full-year 2026 reflect AI-driven chip demand and 5.1% export growth, yet soft April employment gains of just 74,000 and 2.6% inflation point to fragile domestic consumption that sustains notable probabilities in the 1.5–2.9% bands. The closely matched leading outcomes underscore uncertainty over whether export momentum will sustain mid-3% or push into mid-4% territory, with May trade data and global tech orders serving as key near-term catalysts ahead of the July 28 advance release.
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the second quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on July 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
Market Opened: Apr 23, 2026, 6:28 PM ET
Volume
$1,961End Date
Jul 23, 2026Market Opened
Apr 23, 2026, 6:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the second quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on July 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01Strong semiconductor exports, highlighted by April’s 48% year-over-year trade surge and the Bank of Korea’s 3.6% Q1 2026 YoY GDP print—the fastest pace in five years—have anchored market-implied odds for South Korea’s Q2 2026 growth near 3.5–4.4%, with those ranges commanding the highest combined probability. Upward revisions by institutions such as JP Morgan to 3.0% and the Korea Development Institute to 2.5% for full-year 2026 reflect AI-driven chip demand and 5.1% export growth, yet soft April employment gains of just 74,000 and 2.6% inflation point to fragile domestic consumption that sustains notable probabilities in the 1.5–2.9% bands. The closely matched leading outcomes underscore uncertainty over whether export momentum will sustain mid-3% or push into mid-4% territory, with May trade data and global tech orders serving as key near-term catalysts ahead of the July 28 advance release.
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the second quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on July 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
Volume
$1,961End Date
Jul 23, 2026Market Opened
Apr 23, 2026, 6:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong semiconductor exports, highlighted by April’s 48% year-over-year trade surge and the Bank of Korea’s 3.6% Q1 2026 YoY GDP print—the fastest pace in five years—have anchored market-implied odds for South Korea’s Q2 2026 growth near 3.5–4.4%, with those ranges commanding the highest combined probability. Upward revisions by institutions such as JP Morgan to 3.0% and the Korea Development Institute to 2.5% for full-year 2026 reflect AI-driven chip demand and 5.1% export growth, yet soft April employment gains of just 74,000 and 2.6% inflation point to fragile domestic consumption that sustains notable probabilities in the 1.5–2.9% bands. The closely matched leading outcomes underscore uncertainty over whether export momentum will sustain mid-3% or push into mid-4% territory, with May trade data and global tech orders serving as key near-term catalysts ahead of the July 28 advance release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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