SpaceX's confidential IPO filing in early April 2026, targeting a June listing at a $1.75 trillion to $2 trillion valuation, has driven trader consensus to 93.5% implied probability for a closing market cap exceeding $1 trillion, reflecting surging private valuations above $1.4 trillion amid Starship V3 thrust milestones and Starlink's bandwidth expansions. Robust launch cadence, NASA contracts, and multi-planetary ambitions bolster this positioning, with recent reports confirming prospectus release by late May and early June roadshow. Realistic challenges include FAA regulatory delays on Starship, macroeconomic volatility, or execution risks in high-cycle reusability, though skin-in-the-game traders see limited downside given historical private-to-public multiples.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated1T+ 94%
No IPO before 2028 1.7%
800B–900B 1.2%
700B–800B <1%
$3,399,398 Vol.
$3,399,398 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
<500B
<1%
500B–600B
<1%
600B–700B
<1%
700B–800B
1%
800B–900B
1%
900B–1T
1%
1T+
94%
No IPO before 2028
2%
1T+ 94%
No IPO before 2028 1.7%
800B–900B 1.2%
700B–800B <1%
$3,399,398 Vol.
$3,399,398 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
<500B
$374,455 Vol.
<1%
500B–600B
$319,865 Vol.
<1%
600B–700B
$287,072 Vol.
<1%
700B–800B
$331,318 Vol.
1%
800B–900B
$481,942 Vol.
1%
900B–1T
$417,526 Vol.
1%
1T+
$598,619 Vol.
94%
No IPO before 2028
$588,601 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.SpaceX's confidential IPO filing in early April 2026, targeting a June listing at a $1.75 trillion to $2 trillion valuation, has driven trader consensus to 93.5% implied probability for a closing market cap exceeding $1 trillion, reflecting surging private valuations above $1.4 trillion amid Starship V3 thrust milestones and Starlink's bandwidth expansions. Robust launch cadence, NASA contracts, and multi-planetary ambitions bolster this positioning, with recent reports confirming prospectus release by late May and early June roadshow. Realistic challenges include FAA regulatory delays on Starship, macroeconomic volatility, or execution risks in high-cycle reusability, though skin-in-the-game traders see limited downside given historical private-to-public multiples.
This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Market Opened: Dec 5, 2025, 8:24 PM ET
Volume
$3,399,398End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Dec 5, 2025, 8:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.SpaceX's confidential IPO filing in early April 2026, targeting a June listing at a $1.75 trillion to $2 trillion valuation, has driven trader consensus to 93.5% implied probability for a closing market cap exceeding $1 trillion, reflecting surging private valuations above $1.4 trillion amid Starship V3 thrust milestones and Starlink's bandwidth expansions. Robust launch cadence, NASA contracts, and multi-planetary ambitions bolster this positioning, with recent reports confirming prospectus release by late May and early June roadshow. Realistic challenges include FAA regulatory delays on Starship, macroeconomic volatility, or execution risks in high-cycle reusability, though skin-in-the-game traders see limited downside given historical private-to-public multiples.
This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$3,399,398End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Dec 5, 2025, 8:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...SpaceX's confidential IPO filing in early April 2026, targeting a June listing at a $1.75 trillion to $2 trillion valuation, has driven trader consensus to 93.5% implied probability for a closing market cap exceeding $1 trillion, reflecting surging private valuations above $1.4 trillion amid Starship V3 thrust milestones and Starlink's bandwidth expansions. Robust launch cadence, NASA contracts, and multi-planetary ambitions bolster this positioning, with recent reports confirming prospectus release by late May and early June roadshow. Realistic challenges include FAA regulatory delays on Starship, macroeconomic volatility, or execution risks in high-cycle reusability, though skin-in-the-game traders see limited downside given historical private-to-public multiples.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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