Alibaba's recent release of the Qwen3.8-Max model, with 2.4 trillion parameters and benchmark scores rivaling leading systems from Anthropic, has driven strong performance on math-specific evaluations, positioning the lab as the clear frontrunner for a top-three finish on the arena.ai Text Arena Math leaderboard by August 31. Traders have priced this heavily into the 70% implied probability for third place, reflecting consistent Chinese lab advantages in quantitative reasoning tasks and recent leaderboard momentum. Google follows at 28% amid ongoing Gemini refinements, while established Western labs like OpenAI sit near 2% due to comparatively slower math-specific gains. The "Other" category at 50% captures uncertainty around smaller or emerging labs potentially displacing the pack in the final two weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAlibaba 70%
Google 28.4%
OpenAI 1.7%
Meta <1%
$46,574 Vol.
$46,574 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
Alibaba
70%
28%
OpenAI
2%
Meta
1%
Baidu
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Bytedance
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Anthropic
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Alibaba 70%
Google 28.4%
OpenAI 1.7%
Meta <1%
$46,574 Vol.
$46,574 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
Alibaba
$11,253 Vol.
70%
$9,998 Vol.
28%
OpenAI
$5,579 Vol.
2%
Meta
$1,655 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$1,269 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$1,259 Vol.
<1%
Bytedance
$1,390 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$2,676 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$1,369 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$904 Vol.
<1%
Anthropic
$909 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$1,303 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$578 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$1,152 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$730 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$790 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$579 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$1,059 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$1,372 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$751 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Alibaba's recent release of the Qwen3.8-Max model, with 2.4 trillion parameters and benchmark scores rivaling leading systems from Anthropic, has driven strong performance on math-specific evaluations, positioning the lab as the clear frontrunner for a top-three finish on the arena.ai Text Arena Math leaderboard by August 31. Traders have priced this heavily into the 70% implied probability for third place, reflecting consistent Chinese lab advantages in quantitative reasoning tasks and recent leaderboard momentum. Google follows at 28% amid ongoing Gemini refinements, while established Western labs like OpenAI sit near 2% due to comparatively slower math-specific gains. The "Other" category at 50% captures uncertainty around smaller or emerging labs potentially displacing the pack in the final two weeks.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 8:47 PM ET
Volume
$46,574End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 8:47 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labsResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Alibaba's recent release of the Qwen3.8-Max model, with 2.4 trillion parameters and benchmark scores rivaling leading systems from Anthropic, has driven strong performance on math-specific evaluations, positioning the lab as the clear frontrunner for a top-three finish on the arena.ai Text Arena Math leaderboard by August 31. Traders have priced this heavily into the 70% implied probability for third place, reflecting consistent Chinese lab advantages in quantitative reasoning tasks and recent leaderboard momentum. Google follows at 28% amid ongoing Gemini refinements, while established Western labs like OpenAI sit near 2% due to comparatively slower math-specific gains. The "Other" category at 50% captures uncertainty around smaller or emerging labs potentially displacing the pack in the final two weeks.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$46,574End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 8:47 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labsResolver
0x69c47De9D...Alibaba's recent release of the Qwen3.8-Max model, with 2.4 trillion parameters and benchmark scores rivaling leading systems from Anthropic, has driven strong performance on math-specific evaluations, positioning the lab as the clear frontrunner for a top-three finish on the arena.ai Text Arena Math leaderboard by August 31. Traders have priced this heavily into the 70% implied probability for third place, reflecting consistent Chinese lab advantages in quantitative reasoning tasks and recent leaderboard momentum. Google follows at 28% amid ongoing Gemini refinements, while established Western labs like OpenAI sit near 2% due to comparatively slower math-specific gains. The "Other" category at 50% captures uncertainty around smaller or emerging labs potentially displacing the pack in the final two weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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