Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.”
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
“Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including its internal waters. Iran’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Iran Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.Diplomatic efforts to extend or finalize the US-Iran ceasefire remain stalled as the 60-day period established in the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum approaches its end. Recent talks mediated by Qatar and Pakistan have produced circulating drafts on issues including navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief, and limits on Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile programs, though US officials describe progress without final agreement and Iran has pursued parallel discussions with Oman. Intermittent violations, including reported shipping incidents and strikes, continue to test compliance, while low-intensity exchanges persist alongside involvement from Israel and regional proxies. Upcoming mediation sessions and any unilateral US actions on enforcement could influence whether the pause holds into September or beyond.
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.”
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
“Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including its internal waters. Iran’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Iran Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.”
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
“Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including its internal waters. Iran’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Iran Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
Diplomatic efforts to extend or finalize the US-Iran ceasefire remain stalled as the 60-day period established in the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum approaches its end. Recent talks mediated by Qatar and Pakistan have produced circulating drafts on issues including navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief, and limits on Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile programs, though US officials describe progress without final agreement and Iran has pursued parallel discussions with Oman. Intermittent violations, including reported shipping incidents and strikes, continue to test compliance, while low-intensity exchanges persist alongside involvement from Israel and regional proxies. Upcoming mediation sessions and any unilateral US actions on enforcement could influence whether the pause holds into September or beyond.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Aug 21 2026
Egypt signals possible Iran-Oman agreement to revive US-Iran negotiations
September 30 surges to 58%25%
Egypt indicated that a potential Iran-Oman agreement could create conditions for Washington and Tehran to return to negotiations, raising hopes for ceasefire continuation and diplomatic resolution.
Aug 21 2026
US President Trump warns of new sanctions and military readiness against Iran
October 31 dips to 56%4%
Trump warned of 'tremendous' punishment on countries aiding Iran and emphasized US military readiness, maintaining pressure on Iran and signaling ongoing conflict risks despite ceasefire hopes.
Aug 20 2026
US aircraft carrier arrives in Middle East amid rising tensions
August 31 surges to 79%26%
The arrival of a US aircraft carrier in the Middle East signaled a military buildup and readiness to respond to Iranian actions, reinforcing US commitment to maintaining pressure and the ceasefire's fragility.
Aug 20 2026
US President Trump announces intensified economic pressure campaign on Iran
September 15 surges to 73%25%
Trump declared a major new campaign to target Iran's economy with sanctions, increasing non-military pressure amid stalled talks and ongoing conflict, affecting market perceptions of ceasefire durability.
Aug 19 2026
US launches fresh strikes targeting Iran amid ceasefire threats
August 25 surges to 89%28%
The US conducted new airstrikes against Iranian targets following Iranian attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, intensifying hostilities and threatening the fragile ceasefire agreement signed in June.
Aug 18 2026
Iran threatens new offensive as US rules out extending ceasefire
August 22 surges to 93%21%
A senior Iranian official announced Iran would shift to a fully offensive military posture due to stalled negotiations, while the US ruled out extending the temporary ceasefire, increasing tensions and uncertainty about ceasefire continuation.
Aug 18 2026
Trump says no talks underway with Iran, UAE detects missile threat
August 22 surges to 93%21%
President Trump stated no talks were underway with Iran and threatened military action against Oman if it obstructed US efforts in the Strait of Hormuz, escalating tensions and casting doubt on ceasefire durability.
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.”
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
“Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including its internal waters. Iran’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Iran Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.Diplomatic efforts to extend or finalize the US-Iran ceasefire remain stalled as the 60-day period established in the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum approaches its end. Recent talks mediated by Qatar and Pakistan have produced circulating drafts on issues including navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief, and limits on Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile programs, though US officials describe progress without final agreement and Iran has pursued parallel discussions with Oman. Intermittent violations, including reported shipping incidents and strikes, continue to test compliance, while low-intensity exchanges persist alongside involvement from Israel and regional proxies. Upcoming mediation sessions and any unilateral US actions on enforcement could influence whether the pause holds into September or beyond.
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.”
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
“Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including its internal waters. Iran’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Iran Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.”
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
“Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including its internal waters. Iran’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Iran Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
Diplomatic efforts to extend or finalize the US-Iran ceasefire remain stalled as the 60-day period established in the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum approaches its end. Recent talks mediated by Qatar and Pakistan have produced circulating drafts on issues including navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief, and limits on Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile programs, though US officials describe progress without final agreement and Iran has pursued parallel discussions with Oman. Intermittent violations, including reported shipping incidents and strikes, continue to test compliance, while low-intensity exchanges persist alongside involvement from Israel and regional proxies. Upcoming mediation sessions and any unilateral US actions on enforcement could influence whether the pause holds into September or beyond.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Aug 21 2026
Egypt signals possible Iran-Oman agreement to revive US-Iran negotiations
September 30 surges to 58%25%
Egypt indicated that a potential Iran-Oman agreement could create conditions for Washington and Tehran to return to negotiations, raising hopes for ceasefire continuation and diplomatic resolution.
Aug 21 2026
US President Trump warns of new sanctions and military readiness against Iran
October 31 dips to 56%4%
Trump warned of 'tremendous' punishment on countries aiding Iran and emphasized US military readiness, maintaining pressure on Iran and signaling ongoing conflict risks despite ceasefire hopes.
Aug 20 2026
US aircraft carrier arrives in Middle East amid rising tensions
August 31 surges to 79%26%
The arrival of a US aircraft carrier in the Middle East signaled a military buildup and readiness to respond to Iranian actions, reinforcing US commitment to maintaining pressure and the ceasefire's fragility.
Aug 20 2026
US President Trump announces intensified economic pressure campaign on Iran
September 15 surges to 73%25%
Trump declared a major new campaign to target Iran's economy with sanctions, increasing non-military pressure amid stalled talks and ongoing conflict, affecting market perceptions of ceasefire durability.
Aug 19 2026
US launches fresh strikes targeting Iran amid ceasefire threats
August 25 surges to 89%28%
The US conducted new airstrikes against Iranian targets following Iranian attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, intensifying hostilities and threatening the fragile ceasefire agreement signed in June.
Aug 18 2026
Iran threatens new offensive as US rules out extending ceasefire
August 22 surges to 93%21%
A senior Iranian official announced Iran would shift to a fully offensive military posture due to stalled negotiations, while the US ruled out extending the temporary ceasefire, increasing tensions and uncertainty about ceasefire continuation.
Aug 18 2026
Trump says no talks underway with Iran, UAE detects missile threat
August 22 surges to 93%21%
President Trump stated no talks were underway with Iran and threatened military action against Oman if it obstructed US efforts in the Strait of Hormuz, escalating tensions and casting doubt on ceasefire durability.
"US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "August 22" at 98%, followed by "August 25" at 95%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 98¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 98% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.
As of today, "US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?" has generated $927.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 18, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.
To trade on "US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.
The current frontrunner for "US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?" is "August 22" at 98%, meaning the market assigns a 98% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "August 25" at 95%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.
The resolution rules for "US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.
Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.
Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $927.7K traded on “US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.
To place your first trade on "US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.
On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 98¢ for "August 22" in the "US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 98% chance that "August 22" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 98¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 2¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.
The "US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Sep 30, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.
The "US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?" market has an active community of 21 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.
Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.
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