Recent monthly U.S. trade deficits have widened sharply, with the July 2026 goods-and-services gap reaching $88.6 billion—the largest since March 2025—driven by a 2.8% surge in imports of AI-related capital goods such as computers and semiconductors, alongside resilient consumer and business spending. This trajectory, combined with only modest export gains amid softer commodity shipments, underpins trader consensus reflected in the 40.0% market-implied odds for an 800–900 billion full-year deficit and 28.5% for 700–800 billion. Stronger-than-expected domestic demand and ongoing AI infrastructure buildout continue to pressure the balance, while upcoming monthly releases through year-end and any shifts in tariff policy or dollar strength represent key near-term catalysts that could alter these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$24,762 Vol.
$24,762 Vol.
Apr 30, 2027
<500B
3%
500–600B
5%
600–700B
10%
700–800B
28%
800–900B
41%
900B–1T
14%
1T–1.1T
3%
1.1T+
3%
$24,762 Vol.
$24,762 Vol.
Apr 30, 2027
<500B
$16,854 Vol.
3%
500–600B
$454 Vol.
5%
600–700B
$543 Vol.
10%
700–800B
$720 Vol.
28%
800–900B
$1,895 Vol.
41%
900B–1T
$1,509 Vol.
14%
1T–1.1T
$1,572 Vol.
3%
1.1T+
$1,215 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent monthly U.S. trade deficits have widened sharply, with the July 2026 goods-and-services gap reaching $88.6 billion—the largest since March 2025—driven by a 2.8% surge in imports of AI-related capital goods such as computers and semiconductors, alongside resilient consumer and business spending. This trajectory, combined with only modest export gains amid softer commodity shipments, underpins trader consensus reflected in the 40.0% market-implied odds for an 800–900 billion full-year deficit and 28.5% for 700–800 billion. Stronger-than-expected domestic demand and ongoing AI infrastructure buildout continue to pressure the balance, while upcoming monthly releases through year-end and any shifts in tariff policy or dollar strength represent key near-term catalysts that could alter these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Market Opened: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$24,762End Date
May 1, 2027Market Opened
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent monthly U.S. trade deficits have widened sharply, with the July 2026 goods-and-services gap reaching $88.6 billion—the largest since March 2025—driven by a 2.8% surge in imports of AI-related capital goods such as computers and semiconductors, alongside resilient consumer and business spending. This trajectory, combined with only modest export gains amid softer commodity shipments, underpins trader consensus reflected in the 40.0% market-implied odds for an 800–900 billion full-year deficit and 28.5% for 700–800 billion. Stronger-than-expected domestic demand and ongoing AI infrastructure buildout continue to pressure the balance, while upcoming monthly releases through year-end and any shifts in tariff policy or dollar strength represent key near-term catalysts that could alter these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Volume
$24,762End Date
May 1, 2027Market Opened
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent monthly U.S. trade deficits have widened sharply, with the July 2026 goods-and-services gap reaching $88.6 billion—the largest since March 2025—driven by a 2.8% surge in imports of AI-related capital goods such as computers and semiconductors, alongside resilient consumer and business spending. This trajectory, combined with only modest export gains amid softer commodity shipments, underpins trader consensus reflected in the 40.0% market-implied odds for an 800–900 billion full-year deficit and 28.5% for 700–800 billion. Stronger-than-expected domestic demand and ongoing AI infrastructure buildout continue to pressure the balance, while upcoming monthly releases through year-end and any shifts in tariff policy or dollar strength represent key near-term catalysts that could alter these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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