Recent U.S. tariff policies, including broad duties imposed since early 2025, have narrowed the goods-and-services trade deficit from 2025 levels near $900 billion by raising import costs and prompting supply-chain adjustments. Early 2026 monthly readings show deficits around $57–60 billion, with March data reflecting a modest widening as imports of autos, consumer goods, and AI-related equipment outpaced export gains boosted by energy prices. Congressional Budget Office forecasts anticipate further moderation through 2026 as tariff effects persist and the dollar adjusts, though structural demand and global trade realignments limit sharper reductions. This positioning explains trader emphasis on the 800–900 billion range as the leading outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$20,984 Vol.
$20,984 Vol.
Feb 28, 2027
<500B
7%
500–600B
6%
600–700B
5%
700–800B
10%
800–900B
46%
900B–1T
31%
1T–1.1T
9%
1.1T+
5%
$20,984 Vol.
$20,984 Vol.
Feb 28, 2027
<500B
$16,636 Vol.
7%
500–600B
$413 Vol.
6%
600–700B
$435 Vol.
5%
700–800B
$455 Vol.
10%
800–900B
$1,008 Vol.
46%
900B–1T
$971 Vol.
31%
1T–1.1T
$441 Vol.
9%
1.1T+
$624 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent U.S. tariff policies, including broad duties imposed since early 2025, have narrowed the goods-and-services trade deficit from 2025 levels near $900 billion by raising import costs and prompting supply-chain adjustments. Early 2026 monthly readings show deficits around $57–60 billion, with March data reflecting a modest widening as imports of autos, consumer goods, and AI-related equipment outpaced export gains boosted by energy prices. Congressional Budget Office forecasts anticipate further moderation through 2026 as tariff effects persist and the dollar adjusts, though structural demand and global trade realignments limit sharper reductions. This positioning explains trader emphasis on the 800–900 billion range as the leading outcome.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Market Opened: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$20,984End Date
Feb 28, 2027Market Opened
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent U.S. tariff policies, including broad duties imposed since early 2025, have narrowed the goods-and-services trade deficit from 2025 levels near $900 billion by raising import costs and prompting supply-chain adjustments. Early 2026 monthly readings show deficits around $57–60 billion, with March data reflecting a modest widening as imports of autos, consumer goods, and AI-related equipment outpaced export gains boosted by energy prices. Congressional Budget Office forecasts anticipate further moderation through 2026 as tariff effects persist and the dollar adjusts, though structural demand and global trade realignments limit sharper reductions. This positioning explains trader emphasis on the 800–900 billion range as the leading outcome.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Volume
$20,984End Date
Feb 28, 2027Market Opened
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. tariff policies, including broad duties imposed since early 2025, have narrowed the goods-and-services trade deficit from 2025 levels near $900 billion by raising import costs and prompting supply-chain adjustments. Early 2026 monthly readings show deficits around $57–60 billion, with March data reflecting a modest widening as imports of autos, consumer goods, and AI-related equipment outpaced export gains boosted by energy prices. Congressional Budget Office forecasts anticipate further moderation through 2026 as tariff effects persist and the dollar adjusts, though structural demand and global trade realignments limit sharper reductions. This positioning explains trader emphasis on the 800–900 billion range as the leading outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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