**USMCA extension prospects in 2026 remain low following the July 1 joint review.** At that mandatory six-year check under the agreement’s sunset clause, the United States formally declined to confirm a 16-year renewal, while Mexico and Canada expressed support. President Trump and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer cited shortcomings including the U.S. goods trade deficit with Mexico and Canada, automotive rules of origin, and concerns over Chinese transshipment. This decision activated annual joint reviews through 2036 rather than immediate termination. Bilateral talks with Mexico have continued on content requirements and related issues, but no trilateral extension has materialized by early October, leaving the pact in force yet subject to ongoing uncertainty and potential revisions.