Recent U.S.-Russia diplomatic contacts, including September 2026 envoy visits to Moscow and a Trump-Putin phone call focused on Ukraine peace talks, have reinforced expectations for the next bilateral meeting at a multilateral venue rather than a direct bilateral summit. China leads trader consensus at 69.5% due to scheduled APEC leaders' events there in November, Beijing's recent hosting pattern with both leaders, and its position facilitating trilateral formats. The 26.5% probability assigned to no meeting by year-end reflects the absence of confirmed dates or venues despite constructive signals. Low odds for the United States or Russia stem from prior 2025 U.S. hosting and domestic political constraints on reciprocal visits. Smaller shares for Turkey, Gulf states, or EU locations align with limited recent diplomatic activity or precedent in those sites for high-level U.S.-Russia engagement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedChina 70%
No meeting by December 31 27%
United States 2.0%
Russia 1.0%
$1,205,533 Vol.
$1,205,533 Vol.
China
70%
No meeting by December 31
27%
United States
2%
Russia
1%
Turkey
1%
Gulf country
1%
Switzerland
1%
Other
<1%
Finland
<1%
Other EU country
<1%
Belarus
<1%
South Korea
<1%
Japan
<1%
Australia
<1%
Ukraine
<1%
China 70%
No meeting by December 31 27%
United States 2.0%
Russia 1.0%
$1,205,533 Vol.
$1,205,533 Vol.
China
70%
No meeting by December 31
27%
United States
2%
Russia
1%
Turkey
1%
Gulf country
1%
Switzerland
1%
Other
<1%
Finland
<1%
Other EU country
<1%
Belarus
<1%
South Korea
<1%
Japan
<1%
Australia
<1%
Ukraine
<1%
This market will resolve to "No meeting by December 31" if no qualifying meeting occurs during this market's timeframe.
A meeting is defined as any encounter where Putin and Trump are all present and interact with each other in person.
An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.
For this market, Gulf states are defined as the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates).
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: May 26, 2026, 6:45 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to "No meeting by December 31" if no qualifying meeting occurs during this market's timeframe.
A meeting is defined as any encounter where Putin and Trump are all present and interact with each other in person.
An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.
For this market, Gulf states are defined as the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates).
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S.-Russia diplomatic contacts, including September 2026 envoy visits to Moscow and a Trump-Putin phone call focused on Ukraine peace talks, have reinforced expectations for the next bilateral meeting at a multilateral venue rather than a direct bilateral summit. China leads trader consensus at 69.5% due to scheduled APEC leaders' events there in November, Beijing's recent hosting pattern with both leaders, and its position facilitating trilateral formats. The 26.5% probability assigned to no meeting by year-end reflects the absence of confirmed dates or venues despite constructive signals. Low odds for the United States or Russia stem from prior 2025 U.S. hosting and domestic political constraints on reciprocal visits. Smaller shares for Turkey, Gulf states, or EU locations align with limited recent diplomatic activity or precedent in those sites for high-level U.S.-Russia engagement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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