Traders see Anthropic as the clear leader in the race for the best large language model by end of June because its Claude series has posted the strongest results across independent benchmarks measuring reasoning, coding, and real-world task performance. Recent model updates have reinforced this edge in competitive evaluations, giving the company a durable advantage over rivals. Google’s Gemini continues to close gaps through targeted improvements in multimodal capabilities, yet it remains behind on several core metrics. OpenAI’s focus on other priorities has left its latest releases less competitive in head-to-head tests, while smaller players like xAI and Meta trail further on capability benchmarks. With resolution tied to June leaderboard standings, the market reflects trader consensus on Anthropic’s current technical lead while still allowing room for late-cycle surprises.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 72.4%
Google 22%
OpenAI 5%
xAI <1%
$6,004,298 Vol.
$6,004,298 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Anthropic
72%
22%
OpenAI
5%
xAI
1%
Meta
1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Anthropic 72.4%
Google 22%
OpenAI 5%
xAI <1%
$6,004,298 Vol.
$6,004,298 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Anthropic
$844,185 Vol.
72%
$545,907 Vol.
22%
OpenAI
$343,394 Vol.
5%
xAI
$1,067,444 Vol.
1%
Meta
$136,710 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$504,345 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$163,496 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$303,387 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$483,512 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$156,632 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$160,093 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$383,247 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$364,222 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$382,328 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$165,412 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Traders see Anthropic as the clear leader in the race for the best large language model by end of June because its Claude series has posted the strongest results across independent benchmarks measuring reasoning, coding, and real-world task performance. Recent model updates have reinforced this edge in competitive evaluations, giving the company a durable advantage over rivals. Google’s Gemini continues to close gaps through targeted improvements in multimodal capabilities, yet it remains behind on several core metrics. OpenAI’s focus on other priorities has left its latest releases less competitive in head-to-head tests, while smaller players like xAI and Meta trail further on capability benchmarks. With resolution tied to June leaderboard standings, the market reflects trader consensus on Anthropic’s current technical lead while still allowing room for late-cycle surprises.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market Opened: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Volume
$6,004,298End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Traders see Anthropic as the clear leader in the race for the best large language model by end of June because its Claude series has posted the strongest results across independent benchmarks measuring reasoning, coding, and real-world task performance. Recent model updates have reinforced this edge in competitive evaluations, giving the company a durable advantage over rivals. Google’s Gemini continues to close gaps through targeted improvements in multimodal capabilities, yet it remains behind on several core metrics. OpenAI’s focus on other priorities has left its latest releases less competitive in head-to-head tests, while smaller players like xAI and Meta trail further on capability benchmarks. With resolution tied to June leaderboard standings, the market reflects trader consensus on Anthropic’s current technical lead while still allowing room for late-cycle surprises.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$6,004,298End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Traders see Anthropic as the clear leader in the race for the best large language model by end of June because its Claude series has posted the strongest results across independent benchmarks measuring reasoning, coding, and real-world task performance. Recent model updates have reinforced this edge in competitive evaluations, giving the company a durable advantage over rivals. Google’s Gemini continues to close gaps through targeted improvements in multimodal capabilities, yet it remains behind on several core metrics. OpenAI’s focus on other priorities has left its latest releases less competitive in head-to-head tests, while smaller players like xAI and Meta trail further on capability benchmarks. With resolution tied to June leaderboard standings, the market reflects trader consensus on Anthropic’s current technical lead while still allowing room for late-cycle surprises.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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