Anthropic holds a commanding 76% implied probability as the company behind the second-best AI model by end of June, reflecting trader consensus on its recent Claude model releases and strong benchmark results across reasoning and coding tasks. Competitive positioning against frontier labs like OpenAI and Google has been bolstered by consistent capability improvements and developer adoption, while Google’s 14.5% share stems from ongoing Gemini updates that have yet to close the gap in independent evaluations. With resolution approaching in roughly six weeks, key catalysts include any new model drops or public benchmark disclosures that could shift sentiment among traders monitoring large language model performance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 72%
Google 15%
OpenAI 8.4%
xAI 2.8%
$400,986 Vol.
$400,986 Vol.

Anthropic
72%

15%

OpenAI
8%

xAI
3%

DeepSeek
1%

Microsoft
1%

Meta
1%

Alibaba
1%

Moonshot
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Baidu
<1%

Mistral
<1%

ByteDance
<1%

Amazon
<1%
Anthropic 72%
Google 15%
OpenAI 8.4%
xAI 2.8%
$400,986 Vol.
$400,986 Vol.

Anthropic
72%

15%

OpenAI
8%

xAI
3%

DeepSeek
1%

Microsoft
1%

Meta
1%

Alibaba
1%

Moonshot
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Baidu
<1%

Mistral
<1%

ByteDance
<1%

Amazon
<1%
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market Opened: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic holds a commanding 76% implied probability as the company behind the second-best AI model by end of June, reflecting trader consensus on its recent Claude model releases and strong benchmark results across reasoning and coding tasks. Competitive positioning against frontier labs like OpenAI and Google has been bolstered by consistent capability improvements and developer adoption, while Google’s 14.5% share stems from ongoing Gemini updates that have yet to close the gap in independent evaluations. With resolution approaching in roughly six weeks, key catalysts include any new model drops or public benchmark disclosures that could shift sentiment among traders monitoring large language model performance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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